Tuesday, August 31, 2010
RIMM triggers shorts and new lows. Stops 44.26
Looking for 43.46 for partial covers....
Stick with the 15-30 minute charts and it should avoid the static
Stick with the 15-30 minute charts and it should avoid the static
SP Futures Breach the 1050 level, 12 point off lows after the 10:00 am data
| (US) FDIC Q2 Troubled Bank list: 829 v 775 q/q (+7%); - Total assets of problem institutions $408B v $431B q/q - Deposit insurance fund now -$15.2B v...more... | |
| *(US) AUG CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 53.5 V 50.7E - Prior revised higher from 50.4 to 51.0 |
Today's Event Calendar
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Economic
09:00 US June S&P/CS Home Price Index, S&P/CS Composite-20
09:45 US Aug Chicago Purchasing Manager Index
10:00 US Aug Consumer Confidence, Aug NAPM Milwaukee
14:00 FOMC Minutes
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Events
HNZ Shareholder Meeting. 07:45 ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales. 08:55 Redbook Retail Sales. ABC Consumer Confidence. Trades Ex-dividend: Trades Ex-dividend: BLK $1.00, HD $0.236, ROST $0.16, SWK $0.34.
Earnings
Before the Open: CHOP, DG, DSW, ENER, KSP. After the Close: ABM, ARAY, APSG, CCUR.
Yesterday's Trading Recap
The arguably temporarily overbought market slowly leaked and trended lower all day. S&P' Futures ranged from 1062 all the way through the 1050 level to a 1048 close. This made for a excellent trend trade overall as GS lead the market most of the way. We are currently trading lower at the 1041 level coming into the am pre market.
It was a light day overall for calls in the room as we are phasing into the pre-announcement season. Ben will be on board and guarding for for these events as this is his primary style. Pre announcement, merger and buyout news has been paying him handsomely as August draws to a close. Feel free to chat with him as he is broadcasting live for the post market session daily starting at 3:45. t. Its been active in that area and we are expecting additional downside earnings pre-announcements considering the current market environment.
Thanks for checking, have a great day trading...Tim.
It was a light day overall for calls in the room as we are phasing into the pre-announcement season. Ben will be on board and guarding for for these events as this is his primary style. Pre announcement, merger and buyout news has been paying him handsomely as August draws to a close. Feel free to chat with him as he is broadcasting live for the post market session daily starting at 3:45. t. Its been active in that area and we are expecting additional downside earnings pre-announcements considering the current market environment.
Thanks for checking, have a great day trading...Tim.
Hurricane Earl - weather.com
Hurricane Earl - weather.com
Due to brush the US by Thursday - Warnings looking from NC to Maine.
Due to brush the US by Thursday - Warnings looking from NC to Maine.
Monday, August 30, 2010
DGIT lower
Looking for a even 10 thru 15 on this one. May not have tenager staus for long, could set a record for losing that status in one day.
Trends
Traps
Tradeable
Round level argument
Working seller
Relative weakness
Trends
Traps
Tradeable
Round level argument
Working seller
Relative weakness
PM Ticker Stocks - Financials weak
BAC looks lower, Daily breakdown....Trending, Traps, Trade able, Relative weakness
Tim Kelleher: PM ticker stocks...SCHW GS JPM WFC CSCO BAC AMD AEO DGIT
All weak stocks that look lower
Tim Kelleher: PM ticker stocks...SCHW GS JPM WFC CSCO BAC AMD AEO DGIT
All weak stocks that look lower
Welcome back Ben Erichsen
Please be advised Ben Erichsen will be broadcasting live from the Juggernaut Trading daily from 3:45 till 4:30 or 5 depending on the amount of news flow.This is the slowest part of the quarter and its summer the he will be broadcasting briefly for now. His broadcast last till 5:15 typically in peak earnings season also depending on news event frequency. Please see the following brief description on Ben below, feel free to log in and ask questions.
BEN ERICHSEN: Ben has been trading daily for 8 years and has yet to have an unprofitable month.
The one time head trader of Redwood Trading Miami, Ben has focused on fundamental and news-
based trading for the past 6 years. His style is to read corporate press releases and to enter trades
quickly, before the ensuing reaction moves the stock. Ben has turned a initial investment of $65,000
into $3,000,000.
BEN ERICHSEN: Ben has been trading daily for 8 years and has yet to have an unprofitable month.
The one time head trader of Redwood Trading Miami, Ben has focused on fundamental and news-
based trading for the past 6 years. His style is to read corporate press releases and to enter trades
quickly, before the ensuing reaction moves the stock. Ben has turned a initial investment of $65,000
into $3,000,000.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Negative Weekend BP Headlines
| (UK) Department of Energy and Climate Change has released new guidelines on licensing of carbon capture and storage; Guidelines have been cause for concern over liability in the event carbon dioxide starting leaking - London Times - Trade body the Carbon Capture and Storage Association, which includes oil producers BP and Shell ...more... | |
| BP Admits to spending $1M a week on advertising since the Gulf spill; Article expects politicians to get up in arms again over this revelation - Telegraph (35.56, +0.14, 0.40%) | |
| BP.UK Reportedly an internal BP report of Deepwater Horizon incident finds engineers misread pressure test results before explosion - Reportedly the report, which has not been publicly released, shows that on April 20th BP employees... (35.56, +0.14, 0.40%) more... |
Friday's Trading Recap - Barron's Weekend Recap
AM Trading was exceptional as the GPP # and Berneke comments sent the market lower after opening up slightly in the pre market. we went from 1053 straight threw settlement to 1037 before putting in a v bottom and rebounding. The best trading of the day was had in these areas IMO. we ad a higher uptrend most of the rest of the day after the am session wrapped up. his is where the prudent trader called it a early weekend and locked in high percentage profits. Most group traders who traded the pm uptrend were chopped up over all.
Barron's Recap:
Positive on APD and HP- Barron's comments on the much-awaited GM's IPO announced last week. Barrons notes that there are many uncertainties and lack of information regarding the IPO such as the size of the deal, the expected stock market value and if the American taxpayers will get back their money. In face of a demanding Obama,who promised taxpayers would get back their $50B investment from the Treasury, and cautious institutional buyers, Barron's expects a price of $100-140/shr and a stock market value of $60B or more.
- Putnam's investment head of global asset allocation Jeff Knight recommends European stocks given the weak euro and equities if the investor has a 10-year investment horizon. Recommends high-yield corporate bonds, has a neutral weight recommendation on Treasuries and neutral on emerging market debt. Is underweight on commodities
- Positive feature on Helmerich & Payne as many oil companies are abandoning available order rigs in favor of new technologically advanced and cost-effective rigs. Helmerich & Payne is poised to benefit from this trend and is winning market shares as demand surges for its high-tech FlexRigs. Orders amounted at 16 for FlexRigs last month. The third quarter beat analysts expectations who are rising price targets for the stock, currently trading at $38, to $63.
- Positive feature on Air Products as the company is trying to acquire AirGas for $63.50/shr in cash. Barron's notes that the stock could still rise by 20% with or without the deal. CEO said that Air Products alone should boost revenues by 10-12% annually over the next 5 yrs, while earnings could rise to 12-14%. Furthermore, if the economy recovers even slightly, demand for Air Products' wares should increase significantly.
- Barron's comments positively on INTC though is skeptical on t
the deal with MFE; All risks are discounted in the stock.
- Barron's sees the deamand for smartphones remaining strong going forward and sees AAPL as being the big winner at the end of the day.
Barron's Recap:
Positive on APD and HP- Barron's comments on the much-awaited GM's IPO announced last week. Barrons notes that there are many uncertainties and lack of information regarding the IPO such as the size of the deal, the expected stock market value and if the American taxpayers will get back their money. In face of a demanding Obama,who promised taxpayers would get back their $50B investment from the Treasury, and cautious institutional buyers, Barron's expects a price of $100-140/shr and a stock market value of $60B or more.
- Putnam's investment head of global asset allocation Jeff Knight recommends European stocks given the weak euro and equities if the investor has a 10-year investment horizon. Recommends high-yield corporate bonds, has a neutral weight recommendation on Treasuries and neutral on emerging market debt. Is underweight on commodities
- Positive feature on Helmerich & Payne as many oil companies are abandoning available order rigs in favor of new technologically advanced and cost-effective rigs. Helmerich & Payne is poised to benefit from this trend and is winning market shares as demand surges for its high-tech FlexRigs. Orders amounted at 16 for FlexRigs last month. The third quarter beat analysts expectations who are rising price targets for the stock, currently trading at $38, to $63.
- Positive feature on Air Products as the company is trying to acquire AirGas for $63.50/shr in cash. Barron's notes that the stock could still rise by 20% with or without the deal. CEO said that Air Products alone should boost revenues by 10-12% annually over the next 5 yrs, while earnings could rise to 12-14%. Furthermore, if the economy recovers even slightly, demand for Air Products' wares should increase significantly.
- Barron's comments positively on INTC though is skeptical on t
the deal with MFE; All risks are discounted in the stock.
- Barron's sees the deamand for smartphones remaining strong going forward and sees AAPL as being the big winner at the end of the day.
Friday, August 27, 2010
UNG triggers shorts
UNG continuing the relative weakness trend thru the lows on the daily. Earlier week call were short yesterday thru 6.49...
GS at lows
Looking short on GS with a strong market here. Looks lower - 138.24 sell stops to get short
Relative weakness, working seller, sector weakness, daily breakdown,
30 min intraday chart cups has nice shape.
Looking for a even 5 which gives a good risk for a 13,75 target on GS....
1:32 update at fib res here n GS on the 1 day intra day
1:55 GS UPDATE - Tim Kelleher: 1061 hard stops on all shorts
2:00 PM UPDATE 1061 PLUS A POINT OF SLIPPAGE NW, GS STILL WEAK...
Relative weakness, working seller, sector weakness, daily breakdown,
30 min intraday chart cups has nice shape.
Looking for a even 5 which gives a good risk for a 13,75 target on GS....
1:32 update at fib res here n GS on the 1 day intra day
1:55 GS UPDATE - Tim Kelleher: 1061 hard stops on all shorts
2:00 PM UPDATE 1061 PLUS A POINT OF SLIPPAGE NW, GS STILL WEAK...
GS sell stops to short again if new lows. 138.74 trigger
Tim Kelleher: GS cupping compressing lows looking for a even down 5
Looking to short more if thru lows at 138.38
Looking to short more if thru lows at 138.38
INTC Halted, guides lower - Berake Coments - Mich Sent
| *(US) FED'S BERNANKE: FOMC IS PREPARED TO PROVIDE MORE SUPPORT IF NEEDED | |||||
| INTC *GUIDES Q3 LOWER (Guides Q3 R$10.8-11.2B v $11.52Be; cites weaker than expected demand for consumer demands (18.17, -0.01, -0.06%) |
|
Covering all shorts in front of 10 am Bernake
As the SP's trade from 1053 on the open to 1048, lockingin profits for handome gains.....
All "A" move shorts worked FAMOUSLY!
All "A" move shorts worked FAMOUSLY!
Financials Weak out of the gate
SP Futures opening up 8 at 1053.
Looking to short weakness
GS goes NEG
JPM filling
WFC filling
FAZ long.......
Looking to short weakness
GS goes NEG
JPM filling
WFC filling
FAZ long.......
Thursday, August 26, 2010
SP FUTS AT 1044, TUESDAYS LOW.
TAKING PROFITS IN SDS HERE, BP IS AT UNCHANGED TAKING PROFITS...CHECK EARLIER POST AND TIME STAMPS FOR ENTRIES.
BEST PM TRADING IN A WHILE. BEST TRADING IN 3 SESSIONS IMO. ALL SHORT
BAC TRIGGERS NEW LOWS
SECTOR AND RELATIVE WEAKNESS
BEST PM TRADING IN A WHILE. BEST TRADING IN 3 SESSIONS IMO. ALL SHORT
BAC TRIGGERS NEW LOWS
SECTOR AND RELATIVE WEAKNESS
SNDK trending to the 200 day
At 35.76 now looking or 35.39 on SNDK...Trends Traps Tradeable - relative weakness, working seller all week.
BP update
Looks to fill the whole gap to unchanged....
Was sup $1.00, now up .20c, looking to fill.
Market Makes New Lows - SP trades thru 1049.5
GS Triggers shorts as well as the Market
Long SDS here
Long SDS here
PM meeting ticker stocks BSX MRVL BP GS IP UNG
Tim Kelleher: PM meeting ticker stocks BSX MRVL BP GS IP UNG
UNG looks compelling to go lower on the daily
BSX is suspect to check 5 then who knows if it unwinds that it could go much lower - Shorts on at 5.33
UNG looks compelling to go lower on the daily
BSX is suspect to check 5 then who knows if it unwinds that it could go much lower - Shorts on at 5.33
RHT long stops out, SDS long working, UNG short working
SP Futures at the low end of there range at 1052. RHT stops out he. Still long SDS and short UNG from 6.49
UNG triggers for a profit!$
FREE Trad thru these levels, daily support broken.....No shortage of gas Boone!
Traps, Trends, certainly tradeable
Traps, Trends, certainly tradeable
UNG - entering stop orders in-front of the #
Tim Kelleher: 6.49 sell stops on UNG in front of the #
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
10:30 Natural Gas Inventories
34.70 buy stops on RHT takes it to 35 target
arguments
the daily, strong takeover candidate, strong market....
2000 (10 year highs) daily highs....No joke...
34.34 stops on RHT
the daily, strong takeover candidate, strong market....
2000 (10 year highs) daily highs....No joke...
34.34 stops on RHT
22.96 on IPI triggers long
Arguments
!st day up on the daily and thru the 50 day ma, gaps up ahead on the daily
Sympathy on the fundamentals of the news
Relative strength
Trade able, trending.....thin on traps...
!st day up on the daily and thru the 50 day ma, gaps up ahead on the daily
Sympathy on the fundamentals of the news
Relative strength
Trade able, trending.....thin on traps...
10:00 *(US) Q2 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES: 9.85% V 10.06% PRIOR (Q1)
| *(US) Q2 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES: 9.85% V 10.06% PRIOR (Q1) - MBA Mortgages in foreclosure at 4.57% v 4.63% q/q - Total Prime mortgage delinquency rate % v ...more... |
IPI higher
| IPI Hearing renewed takeover chatter circulating - Mosaic rumored as a potential acquirer (22.76, +0.58, 2.61%) |
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Pm Meeting Ticker Stocks
Tim Kelleher: RIG MEE BP MWA PAY RDN SCHW SLV
SLV closing strong on a 60 day daily breakout
MEE MWA RDN SCHW all week daily's, weaker than the intra day market....Looking to enter short if new lows trigger
PAY is very strong, daily breakout, significant R/S
RIG near lows, storms brewing
Ken S from FL: Tropical Depression 7 has formed over 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. This system seems destined to become a tropical storm and then a hurricane over the next couple of days.It is bringing
Ken S from FL: An area of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico was associated with an old frontal boundary. There appears to be a weak area of low pressure forming along the western edge of the shower area south of central Louisiana and east of southern Texas.
Ken S from FL: This low should track toward the Texas coast through Thursday, but is not expected to develop at this time.
SLV closing strong on a 60 day daily breakout
MEE MWA RDN SCHW all week daily's, weaker than the intra day market....Looking to enter short if new lows trigger
PAY is very strong, daily breakout, significant R/S
RIG near lows, storms brewing
Ken S from FL: Tropical Depression 7 has formed over 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. This system seems destined to become a tropical storm and then a hurricane over the next couple of days.It is bringing
Ken S from FL: An area of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico was associated with an old frontal boundary. There appears to be a weak area of low pressure forming along the western edge of the shower area south of central Louisiana and east of southern Texas.
Ken S from FL: This low should track toward the Texas coast through Thursday, but is not expected to develop at this time.
USO update, No shortage of oil
| *DOE CRUDE: +4.1M V +400KE; GASOLINE: +2.27M V -300KE; DISTILLATE: +1.76M V +1ME UTILIZATION: 87.7% V 89.5%E - Distillate demand -45K bpd to 3.63M bpd - Gasoline demand -84K bpd at 9.XXM bpd |
Setting Buy stop Entries For New highs In Anticipation Of The 10 am New Homes #
SDS buy stop entries at 35.91 to get long with this pending data...Markets get fast and they move them quickly if its bad, Its suspect to be BAD.
10:00 US July New Home Sales, Q2 House Price Index, Mexico Q2 GDP, July Unemployment
10:00 US July New Home Sales, Q2 House Price Index, Mexico Q2 GDP, July Unemployment
SP Fuures of .65% down 7 at through yesterdays lows at the 1042 level.
| *(US) JULY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 0.3% V 3.0%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: -3.8% V +0.5%E - Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex-aircraft: -8.0% v +3.6% prior (revised higher from 0....more... |
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
WFC - GS look lower
Shrt WFC with a stop at 23.76 and a short term target of 23.46
PM Ticker stocks...
Tim Kelleher: Pm ticker stocks WFC LVS BAC HPQ KOG MU
PM Ticker stocks...
Tim Kelleher: Pm ticker stocks WFC LVS BAC HPQ KOG MU
WFC triggers ere 23.72
Weaker than the market
Trending, daily failure, traps tradeable, sector weakness
Trending, daily failure, traps tradeable, sector weakness
Stocks fall as home sales sink
Existing-home sales drop 27%, more than expected. Manufacturing activity in Virginia slows. Dell reportedly prepares a larger offer for 3Par after Hewlett-Packard's bid.
The National Association of Realtors said the expiration of homebuyer tax credits caused existing-home sales to fall 27% to 3.83 million in July from a revised 5.26 million in June. Economists had expected sales to fall to 4.75 million, according to Briefing.com. Sales of single-family homes fell to the lowest level in 15 years.
The National Association of Realtors said the expiration of homebuyer tax credits caused existing-home sales to fall 27% to 3.83 million in July from a revised 5.26 million in June. Economists had expected sales to fall to 4.75 million, according to Briefing.com. Sales of single-family homes fell to the lowest level in 15 years.
Tim Kelleher: buy stops to go long sds at 35.30
With the Richond fed announcement coming at 10:00 I putting stop orders to go long SDS, basically shor the market if we het through the 1050 level. Next support is at 1040 should we violate and trigger support
Monday, August 23, 2010
Short MRVL here AT 15.68 WITH 15.90 STOPS. Lookingfor a 15 target
IN MRVL at 15.69 , looking for 15 on a day and swing trade.
Arguments
Trends Traps tradebility
Relative weakness
Secor weakness.....SOX is theweakest index
DAILY FILL, INTO A GAP HERE FROM EARNINGS LAST WEEK. GAP SUSPECT TO FILL
Arguments
Trends Traps tradebility
Relative weakness
Secor weakness.....SOX is theweakest index
DAILY FILL, INTO A GAP HERE FROM EARNINGS LAST WEEK. GAP SUSPECT TO FILL
PM Meeting update - Afternoon Ticker Stocks to watch
SP futures level of 1067, next support is 1066, then 1061.75 lows from last week.Still short SDS from entries this am.
Watching
WFC, sell stops if new lows
MRVL sell stops to short if new lows
Watching
WFC, sell stops if new lows
MRVL sell stops to short if new lows
MARKET update - long sds
Market had a gap up that broke away to the upside and took stops through the 1080 level in the SP futures. Tht pushfailed and we are now compressing lows and trigering shorts across the board in the overall market
Weakest sector is the Sox$ semi conductor index
Long at 33.91
Weakest sector is the Sox$ semi conductor index
Long at 33.91
Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures up 5 points at 1075 via @constantcontact
Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures up 5 points at 1075 via @constantcontact
Tickers Stocks ar 13:00
Tickers Stocks ar 13:00
BHP
BP
RIG
BAC
POT
BP
RIG
BAC
POT
EPCT
CPST
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Barron's Saturday Summary... - Barron's cover story is on potential bargains in luxury real-estate, specifically summer homes tha...more... (related CHE TMO TGT SHLD WM.OLDT )
Saturday, May 23, 2009 9:36:59 AM
Barron's Saturday Summary
- Barron's cover story is on potential bargains in luxury real-estate, specifically summer homes that have suffered sharp declines in values ranging from 20% to 30% from the heights achieved in 2007. Sellers across the country are seeking to lure buyers by lowering prices further. Fiserv Lending Solutions, a research firm in Cambridge, Mass: "Prices for luxury summer homes -- generally defined as houses of $3M and up -- could come down another 5% or 10% before bottoming with the broader realty market by the end of this year...That would still leave the segment less bruised than the overall housing market; prices there fell 24% from mid-2007 through the end of last year and are likely to fall another 15% this year". The luxury summer home market has held up in price due to the locations outside the most impacted real estate markets of Florida, Southern California, Las Vegas and Arizona. Jan Reuter, managing director of residential real estate at U.S. Trust:"Some buyers have already started venturing back into the market. Real-estate purchase volume among U.S. Trust clients, who have net worth's of at least $5 million and investable assets of at least $3 million, increased 60% in March and April over the last two months of 2008. For second homes, volume increased by 200%, and we are seeing a big increase in inquiries."
- Barron's is positive on Chemed (NYSE: CHE), a diversified conglomerate including business in hospice care and the "Roto-Rooter" plumbing service. The company trades at 23% discount to the healthcare services sector due to investors wariness about exposure of the plumbing unit to the troubled housing market. Barrons suggests CHE could benefit from doing a tax-free spinoff of the plumbing unit or Vitas hospice operations. "Both Vitas and Roto-Rooter are solid businesses that are undervalued," says Barrons, noting Roto-Rooter limited its revenue decline to 0.2% last quarter by raising prices, and Vitas managed to grow revenue 5% thanks to longer patient stays. Michael Wiederhorn, analyst at Oppenheimer comments that shares could trade at $52 within 12-18 months.
- Barron's is positive on Thermo Fischer Scientific (NYSE:TMO), company which sells a comprehensive array of laboratory equipment, instruments, supplies and services to the health-care, biotechnology, university and industrial sectors. The stock has declined by more than 60% since 2008 and has remained mostly flat during the recent rally due to less aggressive earnings forecasts. Barron's says: "There remains room for investors to discover, or rediscover, the stock, which seems not to hold much downside risk in view of Thermo's balance-sheet strength. If there's increasing confidence that the company can reassert its growth path, the shares would easily merit a 14X PE or better, which could push the stock up into the mid-40s as 2010 rolls into sight."
- Barron's looks at proxy battle between Target Corp (NYSE: TGT), a retailer giant and Bill Ackman, head of Pershing Square Capital Management, which lost 80% of its $2.0B bet on Target derivatives and stock. Ackman its trying to force his way into the Board of Directors, seeking for Target to sell its credit card operations and values Target's real-estate portfolio at $40B, as sale-leaseback would generate $1.4B of revenues for REIT type vehicle. Richard Sokolov, president of Simon Property Group, comments "Transferring all of this real estate would constrain Target's flexibility to make renovations, expansions and enhancements that are part of the ongoing evolution of any retailer." Target currently trades at 14X projected FY09 EPS of $3.00/shr and it's the only counterweight for Wal-Mart (WMT). Michael Exstein, a retailing analyst at Credit Suisse has $50.00 target on the stock. Barron's says "One of the most successful retailers in America, Target is a buy at 41. Ackman's plan to unlock the company's real-estate value may be a sell."
- Barron's is cautious on Sears Holdings (SHLD), a combination of the Sear's department stores and Kmart discount retailers. Sears Holdings is struggling even in a period when other discount retailers are gaining business (SHLD Q1 SSS -7.4%, compared to Wal-Mart SSS +3.7%). Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a national retail consulting and investment advisory: "I see no sign whatsoever that Sears is on track. When you've had comp-stores sales negative for eight years [at K-Mart], the business has not changed." Eddie Lamptert's strategy of buying back shares and closing stores is backfiring as both Wal-mart and Target are expanding their chains. Barron's recommending investors to sell the stock following recent surge in stock price.
- Barron's is positive on Chemed (NYSE: CHE), a diversified conglomerate including business in hospice care and the "Roto-Rooter" plumbing service. The company trades at 23% discount to the healthcare services sector due to investors wariness about exposure of the plumbing unit to the troubled housing market. Barrons suggests CHE could benefit from doing a tax-free spinoff of the plumbing unit or Vitas hospice operations. "Both Vitas and Roto-Rooter are solid businesses that are undervalued," says Barrons, noting Roto-Rooter limited its revenue decline to 0.2% last quarter by raising prices, and Vitas managed to grow revenue 5% thanks to longer patient stays. Michael Wiederhorn, analyst at Oppenheimer comments that shares could trade at $52 within 12-18 months.
- Barron's is positive on Thermo Fischer Scientific (NYSE:TMO), company which sells a comprehensive array of laboratory equipment, instruments, supplies and services to the health-care, biotechnology, university and industrial sectors. The stock has declined by more than 60% since 2008 and has remained mostly flat during the recent rally due to less aggressive earnings forecasts. Barron's says: "There remains room for investors to discover, or rediscover, the stock, which seems not to hold much downside risk in view of Thermo's balance-sheet strength. If there's increasing confidence that the company can reassert its growth path, the shares would easily merit a 14X PE or better, which could push the stock up into the mid-40s as 2010 rolls into sight."
- Barron's looks at proxy battle between Target Corp (NYSE: TGT), a retailer giant and Bill Ackman, head of Pershing Square Capital Management, which lost 80% of its $2.0B bet on Target derivatives and stock. Ackman its trying to force his way into the Board of Directors, seeking for Target to sell its credit card operations and values Target's real-estate portfolio at $40B, as sale-leaseback would generate $1.4B of revenues for REIT type vehicle. Richard Sokolov, president of Simon Property Group, comments "Transferring all of this real estate would constrain Target's flexibility to make renovations, expansions and enhancements that are part of the ongoing evolution of any retailer." Target currently trades at 14X projected FY09 EPS of $3.00/shr and it's the only counterweight for Wal-Mart (WMT). Michael Exstein, a retailing analyst at Credit Suisse has $50.00 target on the stock. Barron's says "One of the most successful retailers in America, Target is a buy at 41. Ackman's plan to unlock the company's real-estate value may be a sell."
- Barron's is cautious on Sears Holdings (SHLD), a combination of the Sear's department stores and Kmart discount retailers. Sears Holdings is struggling even in a period when other discount retailers are gaining business (SHLD Q1 SSS -7.4%, compared to Wal-Mart SSS +3.7%). Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a national retail consulting and investment advisory: "I see no sign whatsoever that Sears is on track. When you've had comp-stores sales negative for eight years [at K-Mart], the business has not changed." Eddie Lamptert's strategy of buying back shares and closing stores is backfiring as both Wal-mart and Target are expanding their chains. Barron's recommending investors to sell the stock following recent surge in stock price.
Friday, August 20, 2010
AM Recap
RIG worked well short as did GPS as described in he AM post below.
GPS - 86 % probability of success with 6 arguments, most importantly the daily gap fill from this quarter lat year as seen in the chart.
Other arguments:
RELATIVE WEAKNESS AGAINST THE BROADER MARKET
TRENDS
TRAPS
TRADE ABILITY
SYMPATHY WEAKNESS IN THE SECTOR
DAILY BREAKDOWN
Other arguments:
RELATIVE WEAKNESS AGAINST THE BROADER MARKET
TRENDS
TRAPS
TRADE ABILITY
SYMPATHY WEAKNESS IN THE SECTOR
DAILY BREAKDOWN
GPS Update
Making partial covers here before lunch as the gap has filled from last year....17.17 covers here.
17.34 ON GPS TO SHORT NEW LOWS
GPS POST EARNINGS HAS
RELATIVE WEAKNESS AGANST THE BROADER MARKET
TRENDS
TRAPS
TRADE ABILITY
SYMPATHY WEAKNESS IN THE SECTOR
DAILY BREAKDOWN
GPS targets are 17.17 to fill a year old daily gap....
RELATIVE WEAKNESS AGANST THE BROADER MARKET
TRENDS
TRAPS
TRADE ABILITY
SYMPATHY WEAKNESS IN THE SECTOR
DAILY BREAKDOWN
GPS targets are 17.17 to fill a year old daily gap....
SP futures down overnight trading at 1066
SP futures down overnight trading at 1066, through last weeks lows. 1063.50 are the overnight lows.Taking a wait and see approach, possible scalps long out of the gate if we fill to the upside. Overall guarding for a lower low trend in the market.
DELL has key levels at 11.72 on its daily after posting a disappointment in earnings last night.
RIG is trending pre market looking for 50. Ticker stocks are DELL, BP, MRVL, RIG,
Thursday, August 19, 2010
Dell through daily chart lows post earnings at 11.70
Dell provided a nice second move trade lower through 11.90 to 11.70 in the post market as called in the Juggernaut Room.
| DELL Reports Q2 $0.28 v $0.30e, R$15.5B v $15.2Be - Q2 non gaap gross margin 17.2% v 17.6% q/q - Q2 Large Enterprise revenue $4.5B, +38% - R<... (5.88, -0.17, -2.81%) more... |
Working seller in "C" for a week now
C looks lowerArguments:
Trending daily
Level 2 Traps on the bid
Tradeable in large size
Relative weakness
Great solid trending hourly bars.
Great upside hourly bars on NTAP post earnings....
| NTAP Reports Q1 $0.49 v $0.46e, R $1.14B v $1.1Be - Guides Q2 $0.47-0.50 v $0.47e, R $1.16-1.21B v $1.1Be - Q1 gross margin 63.6% v 62.3% y/y ... (39.32, +0.67, 1.73%) more... |
PM meeting highlighted ticker stocks
PM meeting highlighted ticker stocks MU - MI - BP - RIG - HPQ - DELL - MTG APC...
APC looks to check par..
HPQ is weak in-front of earnings
DELL post tonight as well
MTG has traps trends traceability relative weakness
APC looks to check par..
HPQ is weak in-front of earnings
DELL post tonight as well
MTG has traps trends traceability relative weakness
NEW LOWS SP FUTURES
Long SDS here through new lows lows in th SP futures. Short term targets are 1070 and 1066
SP futures trade sharply lower again on 10:00 data at the 1076 level
| *(US) AUG PHILADELPHIA FED: -7.7 V 7.0E; first negative reading since July 2009 - No revisions **Sub-Indices: - Prices Paid: 11.8 v 13.1 prior - New Orders: -7.1v...more... | |
| *(US) JULY LEADING INDICATORS: 0.1% V 0.1%E - Prior revised XXX from -0.2% to -0.3% |
SP Futures off sharply through yesterdays lows at the 10834 level after Jobs data
| *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 500K V 478KE (highest reading since Nov 2009); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.478M V 4.50ME - Prior initial claims revised higher from 484K to 488K - Prior continuing claims high...more... |
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
16:03 AMAT Reports Q3 $0.17 (adj) v $0.25e, R$2.52B v $2.4Be - Guides Q4 $0.28-0.32 v $0.26e, Rev +5% q/q (implies R$2.65B v $2.4Be) - Q3 gross margin 34.2% ... (11.38, -0.01, -0.09%) more... (related KLAC NVLS )
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER GUIDING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FORWARD REVS.
I love POT
Still long from the AM looking for a target above 150. Re-entries trigger if through new highs at 148.28
AM recap:
As discussed in yesterdays am meeting, BP short worked well through yesterdays lows. Other stocks of note that worked well and were mentioned on our blog were NFLX first day down.
PM trading was slow which has bee typical. Squeeze lunch rally made some longs work OK. Notably was CREE trending up towards a daily gap.
PM trading was slow which has bee typical. Squeeze lunch rally made some longs work OK. Notably was CREE trending up towards a daily gap.
Today's Quote: "Never short a dull market" Thanks for checking, have a great day trading..Tim.
CREE target looks like 62.50 short term.
Gap fill starts there on the daily from when it reported earnings a few weeks back....
First POT target reached
Partial profits can be taken here with POT making new highs t 148.25 level up an even 5.....Still looking or 150..
POT looks like 150 at least
Long POT - 150 -155 target......148.24 partial target up a even 5 on the day....
AM Meeting Ticker Stocks To Watch
BP RIG TGT DE JAZZ NFLX
NFLX first day down after a 30% upside move.
POT Through Yesterdays Highs
JAZZ positive fda data
TGT down slightly post earnings
DE down slightly post earnings
NFLX first day down after a 30% upside move.
POT Through Yesterdays Highs
JAZZ positive fda data
TGT down slightly post earnings
DE down slightly post earnings
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Late day weakness in NFLX
First day down since the move from 95 before earnings a few weeks back. Basically first daily red bar since 95, 30% appreciation in market cap....
"C" fresh lows with the dow up over 150. Goes negative. Major relative weakness
Short through .86 level
Boston Scientific Rises More Than 3% on Report Stryker In Talks to Buy BSX Unit
Long thru 5.75 new highs, they seem to like this takeover rumor....
AM recap: High % trades with well defined arguments. Extremly good day for intra day trading in AG's
It was all about the AG stocks and the fills they offered to new lows till 11:00 am or so. In MOS at 57 and out at 50% retrace fib levels bellow 55. These trades worked extremely well. Other sympathy plays were found in IPI MOS AGU and of course the speed merchant POT.
Most traders did very well and were done by 11:30 for handsome gains. Great job all!
PM trading was confusing as we broke above the 50 day MA resistance in the SP futures threw the 1088 level. This unwound all the way to 1096 post lunch. Longs worked well here as the market established a short term intra day trend...
Today's Quote: "The stocks and the markets always tell you what to do"....Thanks for checking, have a great day.....Tim.
Most traders did very well and were done by 11:30 for handsome gains. Great job all!
PM trading was confusing as we broke above the 50 day MA resistance in the SP futures threw the 1088 level. This unwound all the way to 1096 post lunch. Longs worked well here as the market established a short term intra day trend...
Today's Quote: "The stocks and the markets always tell you what to do"....Thanks for checking, have a great day.....Tim.
AG STOCK UPDATE
Juggernaut Room Traders were paid earlier short MOS, IPI , MON, & POT and are still short.....
All the ag stocks are wedging fib levels and look lower....
Short, and looking to get shorter on new lows.....Aggressively....
All the ag stocks are wedging fib levels and look lower....
Short, and looking to get shorter on new lows.....Aggressively....
Monday, August 16, 2010
AM recap
SDS - Long from the unchanged level worked well for .25-45 c.
RIMM - Short with relative weakness against the broader market worked well all morning
COCO - short from 5.30 to 5.20 thu the 5 round level was nice as well.
The only trouble we really had was taking some pain long sds into the unchanged settlement area. This trade eventually wrked for handsome gains...
All trade, entries and exits were anticipated and called out in he Juggernaut Trading room...
RIMM - Short with relative weakness against the broader market worked well all morning
COCO - short from 5.30 to 5.20 thu the 5 round level was nice as well.
The only trouble we really had was taking some pain long sds into the unchanged settlement area. This trade eventually wrked for handsome gains...
All trade, entries and exits were anticipated and called out in he Juggernaut Trading room...
PM meeting ticker watch list
We cherry picked the following stocks out of 120 stocks on the board to watch this afternoon....
ADBE
SNDK
RIMM
ERTS
NVDA
MDRX
ERTS
ADBE
SNDK
RIMM
ERTS
NVDA
MDRX
ERTS
Morning MarketUpdate
After opening down just above to 1070 support level we took overnight stops and impulsed all the way o sp 1066.25 level on good volume....
Now after retracinal the way to the settlement level around 1077 we are looking short the market.
Long SDS here with stops thru lows around the 37.49 level
Now after retracinal the way to the settlement level around 1077 we are looking short the market.
Long SDS here with stops thru lows around the 37.49 level
SYY pre market earnings post
| SYY Reports Q4 $0.57 v $0.58e, R $10.3B v $9.9Be - Q4 Broadline Segment Rev $8.2B v $7.1B q/q - Q4 SYGMA Segment Rev $1.38B v $1.2B q/q - Q4... (29.98, 0.00, 0.00%) more... |
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Barron's Summary: Positive on Adidas, Coinstar, Johnson Controls
- Barron's cover is a positive article on Johnson Controls whose stock is trading at a modest valuation but which Barron's expects to outperform significantly in the coming years. Barron's mentions that the company expects core markets to grow at a compound annual rate of 5% in the next 5 yrs and its business units to grow at twice the growth rate of their underlying market. Barron's also notes long-term encouraging trends and a healthy financial flexibility and reminds that board will revisit its dividend policy in November which at a yield of 1.9% is not very attractive. Given the company's earning coverage, there is room for increases.
- Redbox has grown rapidly as more people are renting DVDs at the company's self-service kiosks in supermarkets, drugstores and restaurant outlets. The owner of the Redbox, Coinstar is poised to benefit from this growth story and Barron's notes that its shares currently trading at $46 could raise to $60. Citing a money manager, Barron's argues that redbox's advantage is its $1-a-night price which people favor given the weak economy. It currently operates 27K kiosks and plans to add 8K this year. Shares of Coinstar are inexpensive and strengthened by Redbook, which owns 25% of DVD rental market, its earnings are rising significantly.
- Positive feature on Adidas which currently trades at €43 but could raise up to €50 next year as its Reebok brand is improving revenues and profits in the US, which in return boosted Adidas' second quarter sales by 16%. Average selling price for Rebook increased 20% in H1 as Reebok embraced the toning-shoe trend
- Redbox has grown rapidly as more people are renting DVDs at the company's self-service kiosks in supermarkets, drugstores and restaurant outlets. The owner of the Redbox, Coinstar is poised to benefit from this growth story and Barron's notes that its shares currently trading at $46 could raise to $60. Citing a money manager, Barron's argues that redbox's advantage is its $1-a-night price which people favor given the weak economy. It currently operates 27K kiosks and plans to add 8K this year. Shares of Coinstar are inexpensive and strengthened by Redbook, which owns 25% of DVD rental market, its earnings are rising significantly.
- Positive feature on Adidas which currently trades at €43 but could raise up to €50 next year as its Reebok brand is improving revenues and profits in the US, which in return boosted Adidas' second quarter sales by 16%. Average selling price for Rebook increased 20% in H1 as Reebok embraced the toning-shoe trend
Friday, August 13, 2010
ORCL looks lower
Short ORCL here on new lows at the 22.68. Stops at new highs at 22.95
Arguments:
Trends, Traps, Tradeability
Relative weakness against the market
Arguments:
Trends, Traps, Tradeability
Relative weakness against the market
Morning Game Plan - SP Futures up slightly after CPI and Retails Sales
With the SP Futures up slightly after CPI and Retails Sales, I will be guarding yesterdays lows at the 1070 level, If we trigger threw new lows I will most certainly be stopping into short positions across the board.
Looking long SDS in the SP futures Violate 1070
Looking long SDS in the SP futures Violate 1070
Thursday, August 12, 2010
ORCL triggers shorts threw 22.91
Arguments:
Trends
Trads
Tradability
Relative weakness as the market is at highs 13 handles off lows.
Sector weakness
Risk = 23.06 is a tight stop on ORCL
Trends
Trads
Tradability
Relative weakness as the market is at highs 13 handles off lows.
Sector weakness
Risk = 23.06 is a tight stop on ORCL
Todays PM Juggernaut rading Ticker List
Just cherry picked these names in the1pm meeting......Enjoy...
EMC VIP IPG GT GNW ORCL COCO NVDA
NVDA looks higher in earnings.
EMC VIP IPG GT GNW ORCL COCO NVDA
NVDA looks higher in earnings.
SSO hits target
With the SP futures 13 handles off of lows from the 1170 level to the 1183 level, we are at the 50 day ma as suspected......SSO hits its target for a .70c profit...
Markets - CSCO lower after jobs #'s SP futures threw last levels at 1073
| *(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 484K V 465KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.452M V 4.535ME - Prior initial claims revised higher from 479K to 482K - Prior continuing claims high...more... |
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
CSCO trades lower post earnings, waiting on Chambers Conference Call
| CSCO Reports Q4 $0.43 v $0.42e, R $10.84B v $10.9Be - Q4 Gross Margin 62.7% v 64% y/y and 63.9% q/q - Q4 Non-GAAP inventory turns 12.1 v 1... (23.73, -0.58, -2.39%) more... |
AM trading recap
Once again a gap down that breaks away. Opening down 18 handles in the SP futures, we traded lower lows with no filling to the upside. 2 days in a row this has happened. One we violated the 1098 level we were suggesting shorting the market and taking plays such as SDS long. This trade proved to be very profitable. Other trades that lead the market with high % arguments were found short financial's and basically long FAZ from 14.51. Very compelling day to trade given what the market told us.
SD - short from 4.61
Tim Kelleher: SD 4.61 sell stops to short
48 should see futher deterioraion on SD
Arguments:
-Daily Breakdonwn
-Trends
-Traps
-Tradeablity
-Relative weakness
-triggers unwinding stops from 5 level
48 should see futher deterioraion on SD
Arguments:
-Daily Breakdonwn
-Trends
-Traps
-Tradeablity
-Relative weakness
-triggers unwinding stops from 5 level
HIG working well short
Short threw 21.23, Arguments are:
Overall weakness again the broader market
-daily breakdown
-Trends
-Traps
-Tradeability
-Lack of confidence in management since Fridays unexpected shakeout post market.
Overall weakness again the broader market
-daily breakdown
-Trends
-Traps
-Tradeability
-Lack of confidence in management since Fridays unexpected shakeout post market.
Cherry picked from the 1:00 pm recap meeting
Stocks to be guarded in our tickers:
BP HPQ RIG V AMD SD JPM UNG PMC SOLF NFLX SNDK CSCO AONE SD AMD
HPQ entry triggers threw lows here
BP HPQ RIG V AMD SD JPM UNG PMC SOLF NFLX SNDK CSCO AONE SD AMD
HPQ entry triggers threw lows here
BP Headlines - trading off sharply pre market
| BP.UK Reportedly delays projects in Lybia; not directly linked to the GoM spill - Delay is caused by checks and tests for drill plan and equipment. | |
| BP.UK Judicial panel said that various lawsuits related to Gulf of Mexico oil spill can be heard in New Orleans - WSJ - Feature notes nearly 300 cases related to personal injury, wrongful death, and loss of income will...more... | |
| (US) National Hurricane Center (NHC): Tropical depression Five moving northwest approaching north central Gulf of Mexico - Location: 26.2N 84.2W - Max sustained: 35 mph - Moving: NW at 5 mph - Min pressure: 10...more... |
Morning game plan
Please see our recorded link for further detail.
SP futures trading down sharply into just above the 1100 level. Overnight futures touched at 1101.25 low. Looking long SSO out of the gate, for a quick scalp on the gap. If we break away to a lower low threw the 110 level we will be guarding for shorts as this should impulse the market lower.
DIS with strong #'s last night looks interesting long with a stop if it goes negative. Sowing good am relative strength...
SP futures trading down sharply into just above the 1100 level. Overnight futures touched at 1101.25 low. Looking long SSO out of the gate, for a quick scalp on the gap. If we break away to a lower low threw the 110 level we will be guarding for shorts as this should impulse the market lower.
DIS with strong #'s last night looks interesting long with a stop if it goes negative. Sowing good am relative strength...
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Tonights Earnings - DIS is the major stock to watch tonight
After the Close: AONE, AOSL, ARI, CFN, CREE, FNGN, HMIN, JAZZ, LDK, LTRE, MYGN, STRI, SPWRA, TMH, URS, DIS.
FED decision
FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25% (AS EXPECTED); REITERATES RATES TO STAY EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FOR "EXTENDED PERIOD;"- Discount rate unchanged- Vote 9-1 Hoenig dissent- recover more modest in near termmore... (related SPY SHY EUR/USD TLT GLD USO XHB XLF INFLX RTH USD/ )
DELL triggers short entries
Arguments
Trends, Traps, Trade ability, relative weakness greater than the broader market. INTC downgrade, sector weakness. SP sits below200 day ma resistance still Mid day as we trade sideways.
Trends, Traps, Trade ability, relative weakness greater than the broader market. INTC downgrade, sector weakness. SP sits below200 day ma resistance still Mid day as we trade sideways.
INTC
08:48 INTC Baird Cuts INTC to Neutral from Outperform, price target: $22
trading sharply lower looking to check 20
trading sharply lower looking to check 20
Looking at SSO Long
SSO long here 8:30am stops at lows
200 day ma support at the 114.5 level
1114.50 / 200 day level rather
200 day ma support at the 114.5 level
1114.50 / 200 day level rather
Monday, August 9, 2010
Trading Recap for Monday August 9th...
.The
market overall had anemic volume and narrow range. Overall poor market
conditions. Resistance in the SP futures was at the prior weeks highs at
the 1126-1127 level. Early scalps in HPQ long worked well early on the
overnight weakness on news.
V and RIMM were the positive Barron's story trades that worked well also. They trended up most of the day.
BP provided a nice relative weakness trade mid as it filled .50c to the unchanged level and then went negative another .40c.
Considering the poor market conditions we still managed to find goo high quality trades overall.
V and RIMM were the positive Barron's story trades that worked well also. They trended up most of the day.
BP provided a nice relative weakness trade mid as it filled .50c to the unchanged level and then went negative another .40c.
Considering the poor market conditions we still managed to find goo high quality trades overall.
Welcome to the Timthy Kelleher Corp. Blog!
BP has bee nworking well short all day. Looking for a trend to 40. short 41.17 most recnty
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