By Jack Hough
(FROM BARRON'S 2/3/14)
U.S. car sales have bounced back to prerecession levels, and Ford Motor
and General Motors are prospering. Yet their shares trade at humble levels: 11
times this year's earnings forecast for Ford and nine times for GM, versus 15
times for the Standard & Poor's 500 index. Some discount is warranted because of
the boom-and-bust history of both companies, but the current one seems too
large, considering the improvements both have made to their cost structures,
balance sheets, and vehicle lineups. That makes Ford and GM seem likely to beat
the market from here.
Choosing between them comes down to timing: Ford (ticker: F) is the
stronger company, but GM shares (GM) seem like the better bet in 2014. Ford had
a big head start in its recovery and has better cars and trucks and more
efficient manufacturing to show for it. This year, it's investing in new plants
and workers and a parade of new launches, 16 in North America, including a
radical remake of its lucrative F-150 pickup truck. The spending surge means
profits are projected to dip this year but jump in 2015. GM, meanwhile, is
hitting a sweet spot in its investment cycle, where past spending should pay off
with rapidly rising profits this year and next. GM shares could gain more than
30% over the next year, versus 20% for Ford. That doesn't include dividends;
both stocks pay 3.3%.