Saturday, May 26, 2012

Weekend Barron's Highlights - Weekly Calender

(TJX) Barron's(5/28) A Return Visit To Earlier Stories: Why TJX Will Stay In Style
(KO) Barron's(5/28) Weekday Trader: Coke Is Still It
(INTC) Barron's(5/28) Why Intel Deserves Another Look 

Economists expect May nonfarm payrolls to rise about 150,000. At the
margins, "you can get a pretty big market reaction" in the 10-year, which yields
about 1.7%. Indeed, if payrolls rise by just 50,000, chances for QE III rise to
80 or 90%, from current even odds.
                         Coming Earnings

 Day                    Quarter  Consensus   Year   Ticker
                                  Estimate    Ago
Jos (A.) Bk Clothrs       1Q       $0.61    $0.64    JOSB
EnerSys                   4Q        0.91     0.75    ENS
Sanderson Farms           2Q        0.95    -0.56    SAFM
Corvel                    4Q        0.00             CRVL
Daktronics                4Q        0.03     0.07    DAKT
NCI Building Systems      2Q       -0.39    -0.51    NCS
Coldwater Creek           1Q       -0.20    -0.32    CWTR
Esterline Tech            2Q        1.30     1.50    ESL
Joy Global                2Q        1.95     1.52    JOY
Ascena Retail             3Q        0.36     0.33    ASNA
Movado Grp                1Q        0.24     0.02    MOV
SAIC                      1Q        0.33     0.36    SAI
Ciena                     2Q       -0.03    -0.24    CIEN

Economic Calander

T   10:00   May Consumer Confidence                69.5         69.2
Th   8:30   Q1 GDP (p)                              1.9%         2.2%
     9:45   May Chicago PMI                        56.9         56.2
F    8:30   May Nonfarm Payrolls                  150,000      115,000
     8:30   May Unemployment Rate                   8.1%         8.1%
     8:30   April Personal Income                   0.3%         0.4%
     8:30   April Consumption                       0.3%         0.3%
    10:00   April Construction Spending             0.4%         0.1%
    10:00   May ISM Index                          53.8         54.8

Friday, May 25, 2012

NYSE Floor Chatter - Mid Day Update

What was looking like the possibility of a ‘risk on’ day has turned into a big nothing done. Even a better than expected University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number could not garner any kind of thrust to the upside. The headlines out of Europe continue to be bi-polar and problematic. Much was made of headlines out of Technocrat Mario Monti who said the German Chancellor was boxed in on Eurobonds. Today the Dutch confirmed they are also against the idea of Eurobonds until countries get their respective fiscal houses in order. So it sounds like Mr. Monti may find himself boxed in instead. German Consumer Confidence was a touch better, again no real reaction. Headlines out of Spain were garnering most of the attention. Unfortunately for the beleaguered Euro , Spain is a much bigger problem then the Greeks. The common currency briefly touched levels not seen since August 2010.  King Copper continued its bearish streak down for a fifth consecutive week. It’s longest losing streak since May 2010. The parallels to the summer of 2010 are becoming all too common. U.S markets will be closed for the Memorial Day holiday on Monday. The rest of the globe will be open for business. Sunday night will see the release of China ’s Leading Index. The prior reading was 100.52. Can anyone say reserve cut in Cantonese? A heavy dose of data will come out of Japan on Monday, including Jobless data and Retail Sales. U.S. traders will head back to work on Tuesday and the docket will be full. German CPI, Case-Shiller, Consumer Confidence and Dallas Fed Manufacturing will all be released. Can we break the current trend of negative Friday’s as the whole month of May has seen a red candle to end the week? As ‘risk off’ and Friday’s have become synonymous. Currently the market looks like it will be content to take its ~2% rally on the week and head to the boardwalk! Obviously liquidity may dry up as we head into the close and outsized moves could be made on very little volume. Have a wonderful holiday weekend. Remember the real meaning of the holiday and thank those who have so valiantly served so that we may remain free. Ancient Greek historian Thucydides rapped it up nicely; “The secret of happiness is Freedom, and the secret of Freedom, Courage.”  Enjoy.
Eric J. Schumacher
Direct Floor: 212.968.9333 | Fax: 212.952.0002
11 Wall St. Booth A6, Manhattan NY 10005

(PAY) Verifone completely confuses its analyst

UPDATE: VeriFone Continues After-Hours Slump, Down 9%; Beats on Q2, Guides in Line to Below Expectations for Q3 and the Full YearMay 25 at 08:46

VeriFone weakness is a buying opportunity, says Barclays May 25 at 09:30
VeriFone gaps down sharply, support is at $38.80 May 25 at 09:43
VeriFone guidance comments contradict older statements,says Wedbush May 25 at 07:58
VeriFone weakness a buying opportunity, says Citigroup May 25 at 05:59
VeriFone shares should be sold, says Deutsche Bank May 25 at 05:54

DISCLOSURE: No relevant positions

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Mid Day Update

(NTAP) Worked well short all am from the 29 level at the open - reference AM post
(HPQ) Worked well short - trended straight down into the overnight gap after Faber grilled Whitman earlier on CNBC pre market
(MTGE) Filling the overnight gap slowly on the secondary dilution event 


Mid day update from the Floor:

Europe closes near session highs in spite of the very confusing headlines and macro data which were released. European PMI’s as well as German Confidence came out worse than expected. Many were hoping a speech by ECB Chief Mario Draghi would give a clearer picture as to what the next move the Central Bank would make. JP Morgan has stated LTRO # 3 as well as a rate cut are in store before July. Mr. Draghi would have none of it. Like a champion poker player his cards are well hidden. He went as far as to say the effects of the first two LTRO’s have not fully been digested by the system. The technocratic leader of Italy , Mr. Monti said Eurobonds were close at hand. The market found its sea legs and ripped on the headline, only to have it refuted within twenty minutes time by a lieutenant of the German Chancellor. So as we have seen in the past there is no continuity in the statements coming out of continental Europe . So what has changed you may ask? The Bank of Russia even chimed in and said the Greeks have plans for a parallel currency, if need be. Makes you wonder will the Greeks tie their future currency to that of another nation, possibly the Ruble? Is this the new way communism and socialism will advance across continents? Remember the nasty old Cold War days when country borders were heavily fortified by barbed wire, walls and tanks? I know, I know this is stuff of spy novels! Forgive me for questioning the new world order. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, Markit released their first version of a US Flash PMI. Surprise, surprise it showed a contraction, 53.9 versus 56 prior. One more data point which shows the world economy is showing signs of slippage no matter how much pump priming goes on. The coordinated variety may be on tap next, keep your fingers crossed! The good news tomorrow is Friday. A three day weekend beckons. The calendar will look to German GFK Consumer Confidence, as well as a scheduled German vote on the ESM on the continent. US data will consist of University of Michigan survey at 9:55, and then we coast into the weekend.  Another day of twist and turns on the global stage. Have a wonderful day.
Eric J. Schumacher

Pre Market Movers

(MTGE) American Capital Mortgage Shares Slide 3% on 10 Million Share Offering May 23 at 16:19
(NTAP) Bad Miss - Several downgrades - Well off last nights post market lows of 24.83. Trading -$5.00 at  $27.7
(HPQ) MARKET TALK: Cost Cuts To Drive HP, Not Sales Growth May 24 at 06:49 -  Gap-ping up at $22.65 and filling
(DOW)  Dow Chemical awarded $2.16B in K-Dow arbitration May 24 at 08:42


Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Mid Day Update

(DELL) Short - Huge relative weakness - Compressing lows in this 50 point dow rally off lows. $12.17 fib targets to cover
(PETM) Long all day - expansion Fibonacci target $62.99
(MS) Short all day - compressing lows in this last spys push....

Pre Market Movers

(JPM) Both political parties upset with JPMorgan, WSJ reports May 23 at 06:22
(MS)  WSJ(5/23) Inside Fumbled Facebook Offering - Trading down .25c pre market
(GES)  Guess?: Bloomberg discusses that GES may be an attractive takeover target, according to reports      Stock Price: 24.44) price target raised to $37 from $35 at Brean Murray May 23 at 07:34 - Guess traded from minus to plus on a negative earnings guide last evening in the post market.
(EUO) Highest level in 23 months

Saturday, May 19, 2012

Weekend Barron's Update

(FB) Barron's(5/21) Facebook Flops: Look Out Below!
(JCP) Barron's(5/21) A Return Visit To Earlier Stories: Penney's Future Is Still In The Future
(CLX) Barron's(5/21) Speaking Of Dividends: Clorox Cleans Up
(JPM) Barron's(5/21) An Upbeat View From JPMorgan's Private Bank
(DLTR) Dollar Tree has growth on the horizon, Barron's contends
(JPM) WSJ says J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is struggling to extricate itself from disastrous wagers by traders such as the "London whale,

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Todays Pre Market Headlines

(FB)- Facebook to increase IPO size 25%, CNBC reports, citing sourcesMay 16 at 06:18
(FOSL): Upgraded - JAGNote by CitigroupMay 16 at 07:45 -       FOSL: Upgraded - The firm upgraded shares from Neutral to Buy.
(JCP)  J.C. Penney price target lowered to $31 from $35 at GoldmanMay 16 at 07:47Profile hits: QU2 - Very Weak in the pre market -Down -$5
(SINA) price target lowered to $82 from $92 at Brean Murray
May 16 at 08:00 - Very strong in the pre market up $5.42
(RENN) Renren Trims Q1 Loss; Beats on Revs, Profit - Shares Spike 9.5%
May 15 at 10:40

Monday, May 14, 2012

(FB) FaceBook - IPO on Friday - Sympathy Stocks to Watch

(GSVC) Currently trending up into after a strong secondary offering on Friday
(SVVC) Loo'sk higher thru the 28.50 level
(RENN) Renren inc. trading strong into the pm. Quarterly EPS after the bell tonight
(LNKD) Trading higher up $4 just below the $110 level

DISCLOSURE: No Relevant Positions

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

$ HLF trades off in the pre market

DISCLOSURE - short $44.6 pre market