Tuesday, August 31, 2010

New Juggernaut Trading Room Password via #constantcontact

New Juggernaut Trading Room Password via #constantcontact

RIMM triggers shorts and new lows. Stops 44.26

Looking for 43.46 for partial covers....

Stick with the 15-30 minute charts and it should avoid the static

RIMM Looks lower

Guarding lows, shorting RIMM if new lows through 43.83

SP Futures Breach the 1050 level, 12 point off lows after the 10:00 am data

10:00(US) FDIC Q2 Troubled Bank list: 829 v 775 q/q (+7%);
- Total assets of problem institutions $408B v $431B q/q
- Deposit insurance fund now -$15.2B v...
more... (related SPY SHY XHB EUR/USD XLF )
10:00*(US) AUG CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 53.5 V 50.7E
- Prior revised higher from 50.4 to 51.0
(related SPY SHY EUR/USD RTH WEEKLY )

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures down slightly overnight at 1042 via #constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures down slightly overnight at 1042 via #constantcontact

Today's Event Calendar

Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Economic
09:00 US June S&P/CS Home Price Index, S&P/CS Composite-20
09:45 US Aug Chicago Purchasing Manager Index
10:00 US Aug Consumer Confidence, Aug NAPM Milwaukee
14:00 FOMC Minutes
16:30 API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories
Events
HNZ Shareholder Meeting. 07:45 ICSC/UBSW Chain Store Sales. 08:55 Redbook Retail Sales. ABC Consumer Confidence. Trades Ex-dividend: Trades Ex-dividend: BLK $1.00, HD $0.236, ROST $0.16, SWK $0.34.
Earnings
Before the Open: CHOP, DG, DSW, ENER, KSP. After the Close: ABM, ARAY, APSG, CCUR.

Yesterday's Trading Recap

The arguably temporarily overbought market slowly leaked and trended lower all day. S&P' Futures ranged from 1062 all the way through the 1050 level to a 1048 close. This made for a excellent trend trade overall as GS lead the market most of the way. We are currently trading lower at the 1041 level coming into the am pre market.

It was a light day overall for calls in the room as we are phasing into the pre-announcement season. Ben will be on board and guarding for for these events as this is his primary style. Pre announcement, merger and buyout news has been paying him handsomely as August draws to a close. Feel free to chat with him as he is broadcasting live for the post market session daily starting at 3:45. t. Its been active in that area and we are expecting additional downside earnings pre-announcements considering the current market environment.

Thanks for checking, have a great day trading...Tim.

Hurricane Earl - weather.com

Hurricane Earl - weather.com
Due to brush the US by Thursday -  Warnings looking from NC to Maine.

Monday, August 30, 2010

DGIT lower

Looking for a even 10 thru 15 on this one. May not have tenager staus for long, could set a record for losing that status in one day.

Trends
Traps
Tradeable
Round level argument
Working seller
Relative weakness

1:00 PM, August 30, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

PM Ticker Stocks - Financials weak

BAC looks lower, Daily breakdown....Trending, Traps, Trade able, Relative weakness

Tim Kelleher: PM ticker stocks...SCHW GS JPM WFC CSCO BAC AMD AEO  DGIT

All weak stocks that look lower

Welcome back Ben Erichsen

Please be advised Ben Erichsen will be broadcasting live from the Juggernaut Trading daily from 3:45 till 4:30 or 5 depending on the amount of news flow.This is the slowest part of the quarter and its summer the he will be broadcasting briefly for now. His broadcast last till 5:15 typically in peak earnings season also depending on news event frequency. Please see the following brief description on Ben below, feel free to log in and ask questions.

BEN ERICHSEN:  Ben has been trading daily for 8 years and has yet to have an unprofitable month.
The one time head trader of Redwood Trading Miami, Ben has focused on fundamental and news-
based trading for the past 6 years. His style is to read corporate press releases and to enter trades
quickly, before the ensuing reaction moves the stock. Ben has turned a initial investment of $65,000
into $3,000,000.

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futs trade slightly higher on 8:30 personel income data via #constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futs trade slightly higher on 8:30 personel income data via #constantcontact

Sunday, August 29, 2010

Negative Weekend BP Headlines

17:44(UK) Department of Energy and Climate Change has released new guidelines on licensing of carbon capture and storage; Guidelines have been cause for concern over liability in the event carbon dioxide starting leaking - London Times
- Trade body the Carbon Capture and Storage Association, which includes oil producers BP and Shell ...more... (related CARBX FAN TAN BP RDSA.NV EWU USO )
16:45BP Admits to spending $1M a week on advertising since the Gulf spill; Article expects politicians to get up in arms again over this revelation - Telegraph (35.56, +0.14, 0.40%)
08:28BP.UK Reportedly an internal BP report of Deepwater Horizon incident finds engineers misread pressure test results before explosion
- Reportedly the report, which has not been publicly released, shows that on April 20th BP employees... (35.56, +0.14, 0.40%) more... (related RIG APC HAL OIH )

E-mini S&P 500

E-mini S&P 500

SP minis open up higher Sunday night 3 points at 1067.5

New Juggernaut Trading Room Password via #constantcontact

New Juggernaut Trading Room Password via #constantcontact

Friday's Trading Recap - Barron's Weekend Recap

AM Trading was exceptional as the GPP # and Berneke comments sent the market lower after opening up slightly in the pre market. we went from 1053 straight threw settlement to 1037 before putting in a v bottom and rebounding. The best trading of the day was had in these areas IMO. we ad a higher uptrend most of the rest of the day after the am session wrapped up. his is where the prudent trader called it a early weekend and locked in high percentage profits. Most group traders who traded the pm uptrend were chopped up over all.
 Barron's Recap:

Positive on APD and HP- Barron's comments on the much-awaited GM's IPO announced last week. Barrons notes that there are many uncertainties and lack of information regarding the IPO such as the size of the deal, the expected stock market value and if the American taxpayers will get back their money. In face of a demanding Obama,who promised taxpayers would get back their $50B investment from the Treasury, and cautious institutional buyers, Barron's expects a price of $100-140/shr and a stock market value of $60B or more.

- Putnam's investment head of global asset allocation Jeff Knight recommends European stocks given the weak euro and equities if the investor has a 10-year investment horizon. Recommends high-yield corporate bonds, has a neutral weight recommendation on Treasuries and neutral on emerging market debt. Is underweight on commodities 


- Positive feature on Helmerich & Payne as many oil companies are abandoning available order rigs in favor of new technologically advanced and cost-effective rigs. Helmerich & Payne is poised to benefit from this trend and is winning market shares as demand surges for its high-tech FlexRigs. Orders amounted at 16 for FlexRigs last month. The third quarter beat analysts expectations who are rising price targets for the stock, currently trading at $38, to $63.

- Positive feature on Air Products as the company is trying to acquire AirGas for $63.50/shr in cash. Barron's notes that the stock could still rise by 20% with or without the deal. CEO said that Air Products alone should boost revenues by 10-12% annually over the next 5 yrs, while earnings could rise to 12-14%. Furthermore, if the economy recovers even slightly, demand for Air Products' wares should increase significantly.

- Barron's comments positively on INTC though is skeptical on t
the deal with MFE; All risks are discounted in the stock.

- Barron's sees the deamand for smartphones remaining strong going forward and sees AAPL as being the big winner at the end of the day.

Friday, August 27, 2010

UNG triggers shorts

UNG continuing the relative weakness trend thru the lows on the daily. Earlier week call were short yesterday thru 6.49...

1:00 PM, August 27, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

GS at lows

Looking short on GS with a strong market here. Looks lower - 138.24 sell stops to get short

Relative weakness, working seller, sector weakness, daily breakdown,
30 min intraday chart cups has nice shape.
Looking for a even 5 which gives a good risk for a 13,75 target on GS....

1:32 update at fib res here n GS on the 1 day intra day

1:55 GS UPDATE - Tim Kelleher: 1061 hard stops on all shorts

2:00 PM UPDATE 1061 PLUS A POINT OF SLIPPAGE NW, GS STILL WEAK...

GS sell stops to short again if new lows. 138.74 trigger

Tim Kelleher: GS cupping compressing lows looking for a even down 5

Looking to short more if thru lows at 138.38

INTC Halted, guides lower - Berake Coments - Mich Sent

10:00*(US) FED'S BERNANKE: FOMC IS PREPARED TO PROVIDE MORE SUPPORT IF NEEDED (related SPY SHY TLT EUR/USD USD/JPY GBP/USD USD/CAD USO GL )
09:58INTC *GUIDES Q3 LOWER (Guides Q3 R$10.8-11.2B v $11.52Be; cites weaker than expected demand for consumer demands (18.17, -0.01, -0.06%) (related SMH QQQQ ) 
09:55*(US) AUG FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 68.9 V 69.6E
- 1 yr median inflation expectations at 2.7% v 2.7% July final.
- 5 yr median inflation expecta...
more... (related SPY SHY EUR/USD RTH )
 

Covering all shorts in front of 10 am Bernake

As the SP's trade from 1053 on the open to 1048, lockingin profits for handome gains.....

All "A" move shorts worked FAMOUSLY!

Financials Weak out of the gate

SP Futures opening up 8 at 1053.

Looking to short weakness
GS goes NEG
JPM filling
WFC filling
FAZ long.......

Facebook

Facebook - Juggernaut Trading Room AM Meeting

Thursday, August 26, 2010

GS Hit new lows, in short for a scalp...

15:45 Closing Imbalances: Sell

GUARDING GS FOR NEW SHORT ENTRIES IF THRU 141.98

GS 141.98 sell stop entries to short GS

SP FUTS AT 1044, TUESDAYS LOW.

TAKING PROFITS IN SDS HERE, BP IS AT UNCHANGED TAKING PROFITS...CHECK EARLIER POST AND TIME STAMPS FOR ENTRIES.

BEST PM TRADING IN A WHILE. BEST TRADING IN 3 SESSIONS IMO.  ALL SHORT

BAC  TRIGGERS NEW LOWS

SECTOR AND RELATIVE WEAKNESS

SNDK trending to the 200 day

At 35.76 now looking or 35.39 on SNDK...Trends Traps Tradeable - relative weakness, working seller all week.

BP update

As mentioned earlier in the day, BP topped out up n even dollar and has had all 30 min red bars since spitting highs

Looks to fill the whole gap to unchanged....

Was sup $1.00, now up .20c, looking to fill.

GS Extends to new lows - Handsome gains since the short entry post earlier

Market Makes New Lows - SP trades thru 1049.5

GS Triggers shorts as well as the Market

Long SDS here

Facebook | Jugger Naut Trading

Facebook | Jugger Naut Trading

JuggernautTrading's webcam video August 26, 2010, 10:15 AM

PM meeting ticker stocks BSX MRVL BP GS IP UNG

Tim Kelleher: PM meeting ticker stocks BSX MRVL BP GS IP UNG

UNG looks compelling to go lower on the daily
BSX is suspect to check 5 then who knows if it unwinds that it could go much lower - Shorts on at 5.33

RHT long stops out, SDS long working, UNG short working

SP Futures at the low end of there range at 1052. RHT stops out he. Still long SDS and short UNG from 6.49

UNG triggers for a profit!$

FREE Trad thru these levels, daily support broken.....No shortage of gas Boone!

Traps, Trends, certainly tradeable

UNG - entering stop orders in-front of the #

Tim Kelleher: 6.49 sell stops on UNG in front of the #

10:30 Natural Gas Inventories

34.70 buy stops on RHT takes it to 35 target

arguments

the daily, strong takeover candidate, strong market....

2000 (10 year highs) daily highs....No joke...

34.34 stops on RHT

22.96 on IPI triggers long

Arguments

!st day up on the daily and thru the 50 day ma, gaps up ahead on the daily
Sympathy on the fundamentals of the news
Relative strength
Trade able, trending.....thin on traps...

10:00 *(US) Q2 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES: 9.85% V 10.06% PRIOR (Q1)

10:00*(US) Q2 MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES: 9.85% V 10.06% PRIOR (Q1)
- MBA Mortgages in foreclosure at 4.57% v 4.63% q/q
- Total Prime mortgage delinquency rate % v ...
more... (related SPY SHY EUR/USD XHB )

IPI higher

09:44IPI Hearing renewed takeover chatter circulating
- Mosaic rumored as a potential acquirer (22.76, +0.58, 2.61%) (related MOS )

REVISED LINK - Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futs up sharply on the jobs data at 1061 via @constantcontact

REVISED LINK - Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futs up sharply on the jobs data at 1061 via @constantcontact

Wednesday, August 25, 2010

New Juggernaut Trading Room Membership Policies via @constantcontact

New Juggernaut Trading Room Membership Policies via @constantcontact

1:13 PM, August 25, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

Pm Meeting Ticker Stocks

  Tim Kelleher: RIG MEE BP MWA PAY RDN SCHW SLV

SLV closing strong on a 60 day daily breakout
MEE MWA RDN SCHW all week daily's, weaker than the intra day market....Looking to enter short if new lows trigger

PAY is very strong, daily breakout, significant R/S

RIG near lows, storms brewing


Ken S from FL: Tropical Depression 7 has formed over 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. This system seems destined to become a tropical storm and then a hurricane over the next couple of days.It is bringing
Ken S from FL: An area of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico was associated with an old frontal boundary. There appears to be a weak area of low pressure forming along the western edge of the shower area south of central Louisiana and east of southern Texas.
Ken S from FL: This low should track toward the Texas coast through Thursday, but is not expected to develop at this time.

USO update, No shortage of oil

10:30*DOE CRUDE: +4.1M V +400KE; GASOLINE: +2.27M V -300KE; DISTILLATE: +1.76M V +1ME UTILIZATION: 87.7% V 89.5%E
- Distillate demand -45K bpd to 3.63M bpd
- Gasoline demand -84K bpd at 9.XXM bpd
(related USO OIH )

Setting Buy stop Entries For New highs In Anticipation Of The 10 am New Homes #

SDS buy stop entries at 35.91 to get long with this pending data...Markets get fast and they move them quickly if its bad, Its suspect to be BAD.

10:00 US July New Home Sales, Q2 House Price Index, Mexico Q2 GDP, July Unemployment

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures down 7 at 1042 on durable goods # via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures down 7 at 1042 on durable goods # via @constantcontact

SP Fuures of .65% down 7 at through yesterdays lows at the 1042 level.

08:30*(US) JULY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: 0.3% V 3.0%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: -3.8% V +0.5%E
- Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex-aircraft: -8.0% v +3.6% prior (revised higher from 0....more... (related SPY SHY EUR/USD USD/JPY )

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

WFC - GS look lower

Shrt WFC with a stop at 23.76 and a short term target of  23.46

PM Ticker stocks...
Tim Kelleher: Pm ticker stocks WFC LVS  BAC HPQ  KOG  MU

1:00 PM, August 24, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

WFC triggers ere 23.72

Weaker than the market

Trending, daily failure, traps tradeable, sector weakness

Stocks fall as home sales sink

Existing-home sales drop 27%, more than expected. Manufacturing activity in Virginia slows. Dell reportedly prepares a larger offer for 3Par after Hewlett-Packard's bid.

The National Association of Realtors said the expiration of homebuyer tax credits caused existing-home sales to fall 27% to 3.83 million in July from a revised 5.26 million in June. Economists had expected sales to fall to 4.75 million, according to Briefing.com. Sales of single-family homes fell to the lowest level in 15 years.

Tim Kelleher: buy stops to go long sds at 35.30

With the Richond fed announcement coming at 10:00 I putting stop orders to go long SDS, basically shor the market if we het through the 1050 level. Next support is at 1040 should we violate and trigger support

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures down sharply at the 1050 level via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures down sharply at the 1050 level via @constantcontact

Monday, August 23, 2010

WFC triggers short

WFC makes new lows, weaker tan the market all day. Triggers shorts ere at 24.74

Short MRVL here AT 15.68 WITH 15.90 STOPS. Lookingfor a 15 target

IN MRVL at 15.69 , looking for 15 on a day and swing trade.

Arguments

Trends Traps tradebility
Relative weakness
Secor weakness.....SOX is theweakest index
DAILY FILL, INTO A GAP HERE FROM EARNINGS LAST WEEK. GAP SUSPECT TO FILL

1:15 PM, August 23, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

PM Meeting update - Afternoon Ticker Stocks to watch

SP futures level of 1067, next support is 1066, then 1061.75 lows from last week.Still short SDS from entries this am.

Watching


WFC, sell stops if new lows
MRVL sell stops to short if new lows

MARKET update - long sds

Market had a gap up that broke away to the upside and took stops through the 1080 level in the SP futures. Tht pushfailed and we are now compressing lows and trigering shorts across the board in the overall market

Weakest sector is the Sox$ semi conductor index

Long at 33.91

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures up 5 points at 1075 via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures up 5 points at 1075 via @constantcontact

Tickers Stocks ar 13:00
BHP
BP
RIG
BAC
POT
EPCT
CPST

Sunday, August 22, 2010

Barron's Saturday Summary... - Barron's cover story is on potential bargains in luxury real-estate, specifically summer homes tha...more... (related CHE TMO TGT SHLD WM.OLDT )

Saturday, May 23, 2009 9:36:59 AM
 Barron's Saturday Summary
- Barron's cover story is on potential bargains in luxury real-estate, specifically summer homes that have suffered sharp declines in values ranging from 20% to 30% from the heights achieved in 2007. Sellers across the country are seeking to lure buyers by lowering prices further. Fiserv Lending Solutions, a research firm in Cambridge, Mass: "Prices for luxury summer homes -- generally defined as houses of $3M and up -- could come down another 5% or 10% before bottoming with the broader realty market by the end of this year...That would still leave the segment less bruised than the overall housing market; prices there fell 24% from mid-2007 through the end of last year and are likely to fall another 15% this year". The luxury summer home market has held up in price due to the locations outside the most impacted real estate markets of Florida, Southern California, Las Vegas and Arizona. Jan Reuter, managing director of residential real estate at U.S. Trust:"Some buyers have already started venturing back into the market. Real-estate purchase volume among U.S. Trust clients, who have net worth's of at least $5 million and investable assets of at least $3 million, increased 60% in March and April over the last two months of 2008. For second homes, volume increased by 200%, and we are seeing a big increase in inquiries."

- Barron's is positive on Chemed (NYSE: CHE), a diversified conglomerate including business in hospice care and the "Roto-Rooter" plumbing service. The company trades at 23% discount to the healthcare services sector due to investors wariness about exposure of the plumbing unit to the troubled housing market. Barrons suggests CHE could benefit from doing a tax-free spinoff of the plumbing unit or Vitas hospice operations. "Both Vitas and Roto-Rooter are solid businesses that are undervalued," says Barrons, noting Roto-Rooter limited its revenue decline to 0.2% last quarter by raising prices, and Vitas managed to grow revenue 5% thanks to longer patient stays. Michael Wiederhorn, analyst at Oppenheimer comments that shares could trade at $52 within 12-18 months.

- Barron's is positive on Thermo Fischer Scientific (NYSE:TMO), company which sells a comprehensive array of laboratory equipment, instruments, supplies and services to the health-care, biotechnology, university and industrial sectors. The stock has declined by more than 60% since 2008 and has remained mostly flat during the recent rally due to less aggressive earnings forecasts. Barron's says: "There remains room for investors to discover, or rediscover, the stock, which seems not to hold much downside risk in view of Thermo's balance-sheet strength. If there's increasing confidence that the company can reassert its growth path, the shares would easily merit a 14X PE or better, which could push the stock up into the mid-40s as 2010 rolls into sight."

- Barron's looks at proxy battle between Target Corp (NYSE: TGT), a retailer giant and Bill Ackman, head of Pershing Square Capital Management, which lost 80% of its $2.0B bet on Target derivatives and stock. Ackman its trying to force his way into the Board of Directors, seeking for Target to sell its credit card operations and values Target's real-estate portfolio at $40B, as sale-leaseback would generate $1.4B of revenues for REIT type vehicle. Richard Sokolov, president of Simon Property Group, comments "Transferring all of this real estate would constrain Target's flexibility to make renovations, expansions and enhancements that are part of the ongoing evolution of any retailer." Target currently trades at 14X projected FY09 EPS of $3.00/shr and it's the only counterweight for Wal-Mart (WMT). Michael Exstein, a retailing analyst at Credit Suisse has $50.00 target on the stock. Barron's says "One of the most successful retailers in America, Target is a buy at 41. Ackman's plan to unlock the company's real-estate value may be a sell."

- Barron's is cautious on Sears Holdings (SHLD), a combination of the Sear's department stores and Kmart discount retailers. Sears Holdings is struggling even in a period when other discount retailers are gaining business (SHLD Q1 SSS -7.4%, compared to Wal-Mart SSS +3.7%). Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a national retail consulting and investment advisory: "I see no sign whatsoever that Sears is on track. When you've had comp-stores sales negative for eight years [at K-Mart], the business has not changed." Eddie Lamptert's strategy of buying back shares and closing stores is backfiring as both Wal-mart and Target are expanding their chains. Barron's recommending investors to sell the stock following recent surge in stock price.

Pre-Market Data, Stock Market Quotes, Fair Value, Futures, Volatility Index, World Markets Information - CNBC

Pre-Market Data, Stock Market Quotes, Fair Value, Futures, Volatility Index, World Markets Information - CNBC

Friday, August 20, 2010

KIRK

Weak al day, trending, traps, daily breakdown. Down 4.50 looks to do a eve 5 at 11.21 target

1:00 PM, August 20, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

AM Recap

RIG worked well short as did GPS as described in he AM post below.

GPS -  86 %  probability of success with 6 arguments, most importantly the daily gap fill from this quarter lat year as seen in the chart.

Other arguments:

RELATIVE WEAKNESS AGAINST  THE BROADER MARKET
TRENDS
TRAPS
TRADE ABILITY
SYMPATHY WEAKNESS IN THE SECTOR
DAILY BREAKDOWN

GPS Update

Making partial covers here before lunch as the gap has filled from last year....17.17 covers here.

RIG

Short RIG all morning, great intra day and daily chart shape, new lows. Looking for par(50).

17.34 ON GPS TO SHORT NEW LOWS

GPS POST EARNINGS HAS

RELATIVE WEAKNESS AGANST  THE BROADER MARKET
TRENDS
TRAPS
TRADE ABILITY
SYMPATHY WEAKNESS IN THE SECTOR
DAILY BREAKDOWN

GPS targets are 17.17 to fill a year old daily gap....

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures pierce last weeks lows at 1066 via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures pierce last weeks lows at 1066 via @constantcontact

SP futures down overnight trading at 1066

SP futures down overnight trading at 1066, through last weeks lows. 1063.50 are the overnight lows.Taking a wait and see approach, possible scalps long out of the gate if we fill to the upside. Overall guarding for a lower low trend in the market.


DELL has key levels at 11.72 on its daily after posting a disappointment in earnings last night.

RIG is trending pre market looking for 50. Ticker stocks are DELL, BP, MRVL, RIG,
 

Thursday, August 19, 2010

Dell through daily chart lows post earnings at 11.70

Dell provided a nice second move trade lower through 11.90 to 11.70 in the post market as called in the Juggernaut Room.

16:02DELL Reports Q2 $0.28 v $0.30e, R$15.5B v $15.2Be
- Q2 non gaap gross margin 17.2% v 17.6% q/q
- Q2 Large Enterprise revenue $4.5B, +38%
- R<...
(5.88, -0.17, -2.81%) more... (related MSFT HPQ INTC QQQQ SMH WEEKLY )

Working seller in "C" for a week now

C looks lower
Arguments:

Trending daily
Level 2 Traps on the bid
Tradeable in large size
Relative weakness
Great solid trending hourly bars.

Great upside hourly bars on NTAP post earnings....

Somebody likes it ALOT regardless of a very weak market.

Yesterday 16:01NTAP Reports Q1 $0.49 v $0.46e, R $1.14B v $1.1Be
- Guides Q2 $0.47-0.50 v $0.47e, R $1.16-1.21B v $1.1Be
- Q1 gross margin 63.6% v 62.3% y/y
...
(39.32, +0.67, 1.73%) more...

1:00 PM, August 19, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

PM meeting highlighted ticker stocks

PM meeting highlighted ticker stocks MU - MI - BP - RIG - HPQ - DELL - MTG  APC...

APC looks to check par..
HPQ is weak in-front of earnings
DELL post tonight as well
MTG has traps trends traceability relative weakness

NEW LOWS SP FUTURES

Long SDS here through new lows lows in th SP futures. Short term targets are 1070 and 1066

SP futures trade sharply lower again on 10:00 data at the 1076 level

10:00*(US) AUG PHILADELPHIA FED: -7.7 V 7.0E; first negative reading since July 2009
- No revisions

**Sub-Indices:
- Prices Paid: 11.8 v 13.1 prior
- New Orders: -7.1v...
more... (related SPY SHY EUR/USD WEEKLY )
10:00*(US) JULY LEADING INDICATORS: 0.1% V 0.1%E
- Prior revised XXX from -0.2% to -0.3%
(related SPY SHY EUR/USD USD/JPY )

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures off sharply after jobs data via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futures off sharply after jobs data via @constantcontact

SP Futures off sharply through yesterdays lows at the 10834 level after Jobs data

08:30*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 500K V 478KE (highest reading since Nov 2009); CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.478M V 4.50ME
- Prior initial claims revised higher from 484K to 488K
- Prior continuing claims high...
more... (related SHY TLT RTH EUR/USD USD/JPY WEEKLY )

Todays AM meeting ticker stocks

STEM BRCD NTAP SYMC

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Guest Post: Ghost Money | zero hedge

Guest Post: Ghost Money | zero hedge

Last U.S. combat convoy has left Iraq - CNN.com

Last U.S. combat convoy has left Iraq - CNN.com

16:03 AMAT Reports Q3 $0.17 (adj) v $0.25e, R$2.52B v $2.4Be - Guides Q4 $0.28-0.32 v $0.26e, Rev +5% q/q (implies R$2.65B v $2.4Be) - Q3 gross margin 34.2% ... (11.38, -0.01, -0.09%) more... (related KLAC NVLS )

SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER GUIDING HIGHER THAN EXPECTED FORWARD REVS.

SHORT NFLX

SHORT NFLX HERE DOWN 7.50, LOOKING FOR A EVEN DOWN 10 AT THE 123 LEVEL

I love POT

Still long from the AM looking for a target above 150. Re-entries trigger if through new highs at 148.28

AM recap:

 As discussed in yesterdays am meeting, BP short worked well through yesterdays lows. Other stocks of note that worked well and were mentioned on our blog were NFLX first day down.
 
PM trading was slow which has bee typical. Squeeze lunch rally made some longs work OK. Notably was CREE trending up towards a daily gap.
 
Today's Quote: "Never short a dull market" Thanks for checking, have a great day trading..Tim.

1:20 PM, August 18, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

CREE target looks like 62.50 short term.

Gap fill starts there on the daily from when it reported earnings a few weeks back....

Tim Kelleher: PM ticker stocks BP POT CREE LVS ABK KG BSX

BP triggered short again through lows at 37.22, its into a daily gap now, short term targets are 36.88

10:30 *DOE CRUDE: -820K V -1.0ME; GASOLINE: -40K V -375KE; DISTILLATE: +1.07M V +1.4ME UTILIZATION: 90.0% V 87.2%E - Distillate demand +275K bpd to 3.67M bpd - Gasoline demand +225K bpd at 9.46M bpd (related USO OIH )

First POT target reached

Partial profits can be taken here with POT making new highs t 148.25 level up an even 5.....Still looking or 150..

POT looks like 150 at least

Long POT - 150 -155 target......148.24 partial target up a even 5 on the day....

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - AG Stock Recap - POT higher in pre market via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - AG Stock Recap - POT higher in pre market via @constantcontact

AM Meeting Ticker Stocks To Watch

BP RIG TGT DE JAZZ NFLX

NFLX first day down after a 30% upside move.
POT Through Yesterdays Highs
JAZZ positive fda data
TGT down slightly post earnings
DE down slightly post earnings

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Late day weakness in NFLX

First day down since the move from 95 before earnings a few weeks back. Basically first daily red bar since 95, 30% appreciation in market cap....

"C" fresh lows with the dow up over 150. Goes negative. Major relative weakness

Short through .86 level

Boston Scientific Rises More Than 3% on Report Stryker In Talks to Buy BSX Unit

Long thru 5.75 new highs, they seem to like this takeover rumor....

AM recap: High % trades with well defined arguments. Extremly good day for intra day trading in AG's

It was all about the AG stocks and the fills they offered to new lows till 11:00 am or so. In MOS at 57 and out at 50% retrace fib levels bellow 55. These trades worked extremely well. Other sympathy plays were found in IPI MOS AGU and of course the speed merchant POT.

Most traders did very well and were done by 11:30 for handsome gains. Great job all!

PM trading was confusing as we broke above the 50 day MA resistance in the SP futures threw the 1088 level. This unwound all the way to 1096 post lunch. Longs worked well here as the market established a short term intra day trend...
 
 Today's Quote: "The stocks and the markets always tell you what to do"....Thanks for checking, have a great day.....Tim.

1:00 PM, August 17, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

Tim Kelleher: 135.56 target on MON if new lows

Financial Stocks Update

FAZ triggers longs

BAC C GS JPM MS WFC all just lit up the low ticker....

AG STOCK UPDATE

Juggernaut Room Traders were paid earlier short MOS, IPI , MON, & POT and are still short.....

All the ag stocks are wedging fib levels and look lower....

Short, and looking to get shorter on new lows.....Aggressively....

MOS PAID LARGE!

53.76 TARGETS ON MOS IF NEW ENTRIES TRIGGER BELOW  FIB TRIGGER

AM - TICKER STOCKS: BP MOS RIG AGU IPI MOS RIMM SEED FEED MNKD - OST HALTED.

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - Moday's Recap via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - Moday's Recap via @constantcontact

Monday, August 16, 2010

AM recap

SDS - Long from the unchanged level worked well for .25-45 c.
RIMM - Short with relative weakness against the broader market worked well all morning
COCO - short from 5.30 to 5.20 thu the 5 round level was nice as well.

The only trouble we really had was taking some pain long sds into the unchanged settlement area. This trade eventually wrked for handsome gains...

All trade, entries and exits were anticipated and called out in he Juggernaut Trading room...

1:00 AM, August 16, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

PM meeting ticker watch list

We cherry picked the following stocks out of 120 stocks on the board to watch this afternoon....

ADBE
SNDK
RIMM
ERTS
NVDA
MDRX
ERTS

Morning MarketUpdate

After opening down  just above to 1070 support level we took overnight stops and impulsed all the way o sp 1066.25 level on good volume....

Now after retracinal the way to the settlement level around 1077 we are looking short the market.

Long SDS here with stops thru lows around the 37.49 level

COCO lows

Guarding 4.93 lows to enter COCO short with the unwinding of stops at 5....

10:00 *(US) AUG NAHB HOUSING MARKET INDEX: 13 V 15E; lowest since March 2009 - No revisions

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call via @constantcontact

8:30 AM, August 16, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

SYY pre market earnings post

08:01SYY Reports Q4 $0.57 v $0.58e, R $10.3B v $9.9Be
- Q4 Broadline Segment Rev $8.2B v $7.1B q/q
- Q4 SYGMA Segment Rev $1.38B v $1.2B q/q
- Q4...
(29.98, 0.00, 0.00%) more... (related SPY )

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Barron's Summary: Positive on Adidas, Coinstar, Johnson Controls

- Barron's cover is a positive article on Johnson Controls whose stock is trading at a modest valuation but which Barron's expects to outperform significantly in the coming years. Barron's mentions that the company expects core markets to grow at a compound annual rate of 5% in the next 5 yrs and its business units to grow at twice the growth rate of their underlying market. Barron's also notes long-term encouraging trends and a healthy financial flexibility and reminds that board will revisit its dividend policy in November which at a yield of 1.9% is not very attractive. Given the company's earning coverage, there is room for increases.
- Redbox has grown rapidly as more people are renting DVDs at the company's self-service kiosks in supermarkets, drugstores and restaurant outlets. The owner of the Redbox, Coinstar is poised to benefit from this growth story and Barron's notes that its shares currently trading at $46 could raise to $60. Citing a money manager, Barron's argues that redbox's advantage is its $1-a-night price which people favor given the weak economy. It currently operates 27K kiosks and plans to add 8K this year. Shares of Coinstar are inexpensive and strengthened by Redbook, which owns 25% of DVD rental market, its earnings are rising significantly.
- Positive feature on Adidas which currently trades at €43 but could raise up to €50 next year as its Reebok brand is improving revenues and profits in the US, which in return boosted Adidas' second quarter sales by 16%. Average selling price for Rebook increased 20% in H1 as Reebok embraced the toning-shoe trend

SP Futures down 4 bearing down on last weeks lows @ the 1070 level

E-mini S&P 500

E-mini S&P 500

Friday, August 13, 2010

1:30 PM, August 13, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

Jugernaut Trading Room PM TICKER STOCKS....TGT HTZ FEED MOT COCO

CSCO an ORCL workin sellers, very weak, looking lower

ORCL looks lower

Short ORCL here on new lows at the 22.68. Stops at new highs at 22.95

Arguments:
Trends, Traps, Tradeability
Relative weakness against the market

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futs up slightly after CPI & Retail Sales via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - SP Futs up slightly after CPI & Retail Sales via @constantcontact

Morning Game Plan - SP Futures up slightly after CPI and Retails Sales

With the SP Futures up slightly after CPI and Retails Sales, I will be guarding yesterdays lows at the 1070 level, If we trigger threw new lows I will most certainly be stopping into short positions across the board.

Looking long SDS in the SP futures Violate 1070

8:20PM PM, August 13, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

Thursday, August 12, 2010

GT at 10 as suspected last few days...

Wrkng seller ORCL....Still short from earlier call at 22.91 as it trades 22.3/4 new lows with the same arguments...

1:00PM PM, August 12, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

EMC still has a working seller at present

downgrade BRCM at davdson

ORCL triggers shorts threw 22.91

Arguments:

Trends
Trads
Tradability
Relative weakness as the market is at highs 13 handles off lows.
Sector weakness

Risk = 23.06 is a tight stop on ORCL

Todays PM Juggernaut rading Ticker List

Just cherry picked these names in the1pm meeting......Enjoy...

EMC VIP IPG GT GNW ORCL COCO NVDA

NVDA looks higher in earnings.

SSO hits target

With the SP futures 13 handles off of lows from the 1170 level to the 1183 level, we are at the 50 day ma as suspected......SSO hits its target for a .70c profit...

Current Juggernaut Trading Room Ticker Stocks

BP
RIG
CSCO
LSCC
EMC
NFLX
HPQ
TOL
EMC
GT

SSO workedout of the gate for .50c, as well a log CSCO scalp in front of 26

Long SSO here, long the market for a scalp on the open, stops if threw lows on the SP futs at 1070

Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary: Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Shanky's Technical Analysis and Market Commentary: Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

Markets - CSCO lower after jobs #'s SP futures threw last levels at 1073

08:30*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 484K V 465KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 4.452M V 4.535ME
- Prior initial claims revised higher from 479K to 482K
- Prior continuing claims high...
more... (related SHY TLT RTH EUR/USD USD/JPY WEEKLY )

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - Wed Recap - TimothyKelleherCorp.blogspot.com via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - Wed Recap - TimothyKelleherCorp.blogspot.com via @constantcontact

8:15 PM, August 12, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

CSCO trades lower post earnings, waiting on Chambers Conference Call

16:05CSCO Reports Q4 $0.43 v $0.42e, R $10.84B v $10.9Be
- Q4 Gross Margin 62.7% v 64% y/y and 63.9% q/q
- Q4 Non-GAAP inventory turns 12.1 v 1...
(23.73, -0.58, -2.39%) more... (related JNPR DIA QQQQ EXTR BRCD )

AM trading recap

 Once again a gap down that breaks away. Opening down 18 handles in the SP futures, we  traded lower lows with no filling to the upside. 2 days in a row this has happened. One we violated the 1098 level we were suggesting shorting the market and taking plays such as SDS long. This trade proved to be very profitable. Other trades that lead the market with high % arguments were found short financial's and basically long FAZ from 14.51. Very compelling day to trade given what the market told us.

SD - short from 4.61

Tim Kelleher: SD 4.61 sell stops to short

48 should see futher deterioraion on SD

Arguments:

-Daily Breakdonwn
-Trends
-Traps
-Tradeablity
-Relative weakness
-triggers unwinding stops from 5 level

SDS buy stop entries threw highs to go long...33.06 buy stops

HIG working well short

Short threw 21.23, Arguments are:

Overall weakness again the broader market
-daily breakdown
-Trends
-Traps
-Tradeability
-Lack of confidence in management since Fridays unexpected shakeout post market.

1:00 PM, August 11, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

Cherry picked from the 1:00 pm recap meeting

Stocks to be guarded in our tickers:

BP HPQ RIG  V AMD SD JPM UNG PMC SOLF NFLX SNDK CSCO AONE SD AMD

HPQ entry triggers threw lows here

34 SELL STOPS TO SHORT F THIS AFTERNOON

FAZ looks great long here threw new highs at 14.51

10 Year Under 2.7% As Legacy Curve Steepeners Cause Much Pain; Yields Imply 75 Points Of S&P Downside | zero hedge

10 Year Under 2.7% As Legacy Curve Steepeners Cause Much Pain; Yields Imply 75 Points Of S&P Downside | zero hedge

SDS FAZ look great long if new lows thru 1093.75 in the SP futures...

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - New Blog - TimothyKelleherCorp.blogspot.com via @constantcontact

Today's Live Morning Squawk Call - New Blog - TimothyKelleherCorp.blogspot.com via @constantcontact

BP Headlines - trading off sharply pre market

08:09BP.UK Reportedly delays projects in Lybia; not directly linked to the GoM spill
- Delay is caused by checks and tests for drill plan and equipment.
Yesterday 23:51BP.UK Judicial panel said that various lawsuits related to Gulf of Mexico oil spill can be heard in New Orleans - WSJ
- Feature notes nearly 300 cases related to personal injury, wrongful death, and loss of income will...more... (related RIG )
Yesterday 23:26(US) National Hurricane Center (NHC): Tropical depression Five moving northwest approaching north central Gulf of Mexico
- Location: 26.2N 84.2W
- Max sustained: 35 mph
- Moving: NW at 5 mph
- Min pressure: 10...
more... (related BP USO OIH UNG RIG )

Morning game plan

Please see our recorded link for further detail.

SP futures trading down sharply into just above the 1100 level. Overnight futures touched at 1101.25 low. Looking long SSO out of the gate, for a quick scalp on the gap. If we break away to a lower low threw the 110 level we will be guarding for shorts as this should impulse the market lower.

DIS with strong #'s last night looks interesting long with a stop if it goes negative. Sowing good am relative strength...

8:30 PM, August 11, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Sell Off

After an extremely weak sell off all day long in SOX$ - Semiconductor index.

Tonights Earnings - DIS is the major stock to watch tonight

After the Close: AONE, AOSL, ARI, CFN, CREE, FNGN, HMIN, JAZZ, LDK, LTRE, MYGN, STRI, SPWRA, TMH, URS, DIS.

Short DELL threw new lows

FED decision

FOMC HOLDS FED FUNDS RATE TARGET AT 0.25% (AS EXPECTED); REITERATES RATES TO STAY EXCEPTIONALLY LOW FOR "EXTENDED PERIOD;"- Discount rate unchanged- Vote 9-1 Hoenig dissent- recover more modest in near termmore... (related SPY SHY EUR/USD TLT GLD USO XHB XLF INFLX RTH USD/ )

Here Is The Simple Reason Why QE Is Unnecessary | zero hedge

Here Is The Simple Reason Why QE Is Unnecessary | zero hedge

FOMC

14:15 FOMC rate decision

SOX$

SOX$ - semiconductor index significantly weak

SNDK

SNDK violates the 50 day moving average

DELL THRU A ROUND LEVEL

TRAPS
.48 WOULD TRIGGER ANOTHER LOWER LOW ENTRY

DELL triggers short entries

Arguments

Trends, Traps, Trade ability, relative weakness greater than the broader market. INTC downgrade, sector weakness. SP sits below200 day ma resistance still Mid day as we trade sideways.

Something is Brewing Near Florida - weather.com

Something is Brewing Near Florida - weather.com

Timothy Kelleher Corp.

Timothy Kelleher Corp.

Shanky's Morning Post, SPX, S&P 500, E-mini

http://shankystechblog.blogspot.com/2010/08/morning-post-spx-s-500-e-mini_10.html

INTC

INTC trades working nicely, relative weakness, traps on thebid

GT triggers short here

SDS new highs for buy stop entries

.97 or 20.09 stops on INTC

Shorting INTC on new lows 19.90, downgraded, relative weakness

BP

Partial covers on BP at 56
Stopped out of SSO
S$P Futures broke 200day moving average
Long SDS
BP TRIGGERS SHORT......LOWER LOWS BELOW 40

8:20 PM, August 10, 2010, JuggernautTrading's webcam video

INTC

08:48    INTC Baird Cuts INTC to Neutral from Outperform, price target: $22
trading sharply lower looking to check 20

Looking at SSO Long

SSO long here 8:30am stops at lows
 200 day ma support at the 114.5 level
 1114.50 / 200 day level rather

(US) Q2 PRELIMINARY NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY: -0.9% V 0.1%E; UNIT LABOR COSTS: 0.2% V 1.5%E- Prior Nonfarm Productivity revised XXX from 2.8% to %- Prior Unit Labor Costs revised XXX (related SHY EUR/USD SPY )

Monday, August 9, 2010

Trading Recap for Monday August 9th...



.The market overall had anemic volume and narrow range. Overall poor market conditions. Resistance in the SP futures was at the prior weeks highs at the 1126-1127 level. Early scalps in HPQ long worked well early on the overnight weakness on news.

V and RIMM were the positive Barron's story trades that worked well also. They trended up most of the day.

BP provided a nice relative weakness trade mid as it filled .50c to the unchanged level and