Monday, August 1, 2011

The Week Ahead - AM Noteables

AM headlines: (SOHU) "Plus to Minus in the pre market - Contra trade - seems priced in - Looks good short for the moment with the overall strength in the broader pre market" reports Q2 EPS $1.21 vs. consensus $1.06  Reports Q2 revenue $198.7M vs. consensus $190.78M. Exceeds high-end of guidance by 3c and $5.7M.

Jazz Pharma (JAZZ)
Upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies; tgt raised to $52 from $29

Amazon (AMZN)

Ramps up for significantly greater earnings power, Barron's says

Expedia (EXPE)

High-flying Expedia may have little room to rise, Barron's says

Floor Chatter - The Week Ahead:

Sunday evening is upon us. Talking continues. Action is still lacking. Which party will pay a bigger price for this grand charade will have to be seen. 2012 is coming quickly. The markets may have caused both sides to blink. We bounced off of key levels but it will be hard to predict a long lasting rally. Macro data has been atrocious, and there are some big data points forthcoming this week. Has sell the rallies become the new mantra? QE II is a thing of the past. The European continent remains a mess. The Mideast remains a sideshow with very real economic and political ramifications. Futures are currently up 13 points as talk of a deal has led to a slight embracing of risk. Is the debt debate the only problem confronting this market currently? The market may have helped sway this battle, but can victory be declared? Time will tell. Have a wonderful week ahead.

Sunday: All eyes on the US debt ceiling debate


Asia- Japan will release their official reserves data as well as China's release of Manufacturing PMI, where a reading of 50.2 is expected versus 50.9 previously. Has the brake tapping worked? Australia will add New Home Sales to round out the macro data.

Europe- PMI Monday across the continent. Manufacturing PMI will be released from Germany (52.1), Euro-Zone (50.4) and the UK (51). The Euro-Zone will also release Unemployment data where a rate of 9.9% is projected. The Swiss markets are closed for a holiday as are the Canadians. Earnings from HSBC are also expected.

North America- US ISM Manufacturing data will be the headline number of the session as the debt ceiling debate will hopefully be close to completion. A reading of 55.0 versus a prior reading of 55.3. Construction Spending and ISM Prices Paid will also be released during the trading day.


Asia- Australia will be watched closely as House Prices and Building Approvals will be released as a pre-cursor to an Interest Rate Decision from the RBA. They are expected to hold steady at a rate of 4 3/4%.

Europe- The Swiss and their runaway currency will release Retail Sales as well as PMI data, where a reading of 52.5 versus 53.4 is expected. The Euro-Zone will add their PPI data where a reading of +0.1% is expected. Earnings from BarCap,Xstrata,BNP and BMW will highlight on the corporate data front.

North America- Personal Income and Spending data as well as rolling Motor Vehicle Sales are the lone data points on a big day in US history. US earnings will be forthcoming from the following:


Asia- Australia will continue with the data dump, releasing Retail Sales and Trade Balance Data. China will add Non-Manufacturing PMI to complete the calendar.

Europe- PMI Services data will be released from Germany (52.9), Euro-Zone (51.4) and the UK (53.2). A Portuguese debt auction is also on tap and will be watched closely for any type of distress. Earnings from Legal and General and Standard Chartered will be in the spotlight.

North America- MBA Mortgage Applications as well as Challenger Job Cuts and ADP Employment data will highlight before the opening of trading. ISM NON Manufacturing data 53.8 versus 53.3 and Factory Orders will also be on tap. Earnings will pick up steam as a huge amount of companies will report today and Thursday. A few of note: CMCSA,DVN,MA,PRU,TWX,ICE,ITUB,RKT,WFR,TSLA & PWR.


Asia- Rate Decision Thursday. The BOJ will lead with a policy decision which will dominate headlines across the region.

Europe- German Factory Orders are expected to come in at 0.2% versus 1.8% prior. This will act as lead off for the rate decisions expected from the BOE as well as the ECB. A speech from Mr. Trichet after will be listened to closely for hints about future policy decisions. A Spanish debt auction is set to hit the market as well. Earnings from Lloyds,Rio Tinto,Unilever and Adidas will also be released.

North America- ICSC Chain Store Sales will have retail in the spotlight. Initial/Continuing Claims which are expected to come in around 407k will highlight heading into Non Farm Payrolls data scheduled for tomorrow. Earnings of note: APA,CVS,DTV,KFT,EP,FO,CBOE,RAIL,PCLN,CCJ & CENX.


Asia- Japan's Leading Index will kick off on this key Friday of trading. A reading of 103.4 is expected versus 99.6 prior.

Europe- Swiss CPI will be watched closely as the Franc has appreciated considerably recently. A reading of -0.6 is called for. Italian Industrial Production will be watched closely as well where a reading of -0.2 is expected versus -0.6 prior. The Italians will also release GDP data where 0.8 is expected versus 1.0 prior. Finally, German Industrial Production is expected to come in at 8.1 versus 7.6 prior on a year over year basis.

North America- Canadian Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 7.4%. The Non Farm Payrolls data in the US is looking for a gain of 98k jobs with the rate holding steady at 9.2%. Throw in Consumer Credit at 3PM to end the macro data for the week. Earnings of note: AIG,PG,VIAB,KOG & WTW.

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