Monday, July 25, 2011

The Week Ahead - AM Noteables

AM Noteables:

CF Industries (CF)
upgraded to Buy at Dahlman Rose; tgt $180

Mcdonalds (MCD) "2 upgrades in a weak tape"
After McDonald's reported higher than expected Q2 EPS, Wells Fargo raised its valuation range on the stock to $85-$97 from $76-$87. 
McDonald's price target raised to $97 from $93 at UBS

Calpine (CPN)
Raised To Buy From Neutral By BofA-Merrill Lynch 
Duke Energy (DUK)
upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman 
SVB Financial (SIVB)
target raised to $75 from $66  at Cantor

The Week Ahead
The two minute drill is under way. Friday's dueling news conferences from Speaker Boehner and President Obama, ended acrimoniously. As an aside, I wonder if the people at Kraft are having a hard time digesting the comparison between Jello and the White House? The two sides have aired dirty laundry all weekend. A short term deal is looked for by the White House so they can get through 2012 and hopefully still have jobs. The Republicans are playing hard ball on a longer term plan. I did not realize either side planned anything for the long term good of the country, if they did we would not be in this predicament. 60% of constituents are unhappy with Republican behavior in the debt talks. While 50% of Democrats oppose the Presidents. Sounds like the cheerleaders have abandoned both sides. $99 billion in new paper is set to be floated next week. Keep a close eye on the long end of the curve for reaction. 80 million checks could be soon affected by the running out of the clock, i.e. military,social security and medicare. The Treasury Secretary was hoping for a last minute deal before markets opened. However none of the quarterback's found enough of a pocket to step up into. The plunge protection team may be active as it looks like the Secretary's wishes will not be fulfilled. Funny how the Europeans may have just witnessed the quietest weekend of the year as the States took over the front pages. Hopefully both sides will realize putting political aspirations before the good of the nation will not work out well for anyone. No instant replay needed in any of this as both sides have made it abundantly clear working together is virtually impossible, and there will be offsetting penalties! Election Day 2012 is not that far off. Try to have a wonderful week ahead.

Asia- quiet start to the week, one data point of note, Australia's PPI set to come in at 6.5%
Europe- UK Housing Survey
North America- Chicago Fed and Dallas Fed surveys are on tap.

Earnings of Note- APC,BRCM,ETN,KMB,LO & TXN
***watch for buyback declarations from ETN,KMB,LO & TXN***

Asia- Australia's Leading Index and New Zealand's Trade Balance will highlight.
Europe- German Consumer Confidence is estimated to come in at 5.6%. UK GDP is also scheduled to be released with a quarter over quarter number of -0.2%.
North America- big macro data day. Chain Store Sales, Redbook, and Case-Shiller all pre-market. Followed by Richmond Fed Manufacturing data where the estimate is for a plain 5. Consumer Confidence is estimated to come in at 57.9, as well as New Home Sales of 320k.

Earnings of Note- European- DB,LVMH and UBS. 
***Active buybacks 3M,LMT,NSC,OXY & UPS***

Asia- New Zealand's Business Confidence and Australia's Consumer Prices will be highlighted.
Europe- The Euro-Zone's M3 data as well as German CPI will be watched closely.
North America- Durable Good's less transports look for a reading of 0.5%. The Beige Book will also be released on this Wednesday.

***watch Visa as they declare stock buyback activity-they seemed very price sensitive over the past quarter***

Asia- Quiet session
Europe- The German Unemployment Rate will be watched closely where a reading of 7% is expected. Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence will also be released where a reading of -11.4% month over month. Italy will auction off debt and rates and demand will be watched closely.
North America- Initial/Continuing Claims as well as Pending Home Sales will be in the spotlight. Four Fed Speakers will be active as well, Lacker,Williams,Bullard and Lockhart all are non voting members.

Earnings of Note- 
Europe- BASF,Deutsche Boerse,Luftansa & CSFB
***XOM,TYC and RTN should be watched for buyback announcements***

Asia- Japan will release its Jobless Rate, estimates 4.6%, as well as Industrial Production where a reading of 4.5% is expected.
Europe- German Retail Sales are expected to come in at +1.8%. Italian PPI is slated to be released with a reading of -0.1% and Euro_Zone CPI is expected to come in at 2.7% annually.
North America- US and Canadian GDP will highlight. US data will also include, Chicago PMI(~60), University of Michigan (64), as well as NAPM Milwaukee will also be on the agenda.

Earnings of Note- AMGN,CVX,MRK & NEM
Eric J Schumacher

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