While US traders were enjoying a three day weekend, Europe and Asia were business as usual. The Nikkei is flirting with 10,000 once again as the pro risk rally has lifted all boats. The European Continent saw bourses up between 1/2 and 3/4 of 1% as the next Greek aid tranche was approved by the powers that be. The good vibrations continued in spite of weaker macro data from Australia to China to the Swiss. Even Deutsche Bank went to a positive from Neutral on European equities. Is there something which they know that the rest of us do not? All was well and good until the big black rain clouds over at Standard & Poors said the Greek rollover plan may still be considered a 'selective' default! Talking about raining on the fireworks show! Glancing at a chart of the Euro on a yearly basis, lower highs and lower lows are still in place. Jean-Claude and friends will meet this week to decide rate maneuvers as he heads to the end of his tenure. A 1/4 point hike is expected. The Bank of Australia and the Bank of England will also be rendering rate decisions this upcoming week. Spain and Portugal will head to the markets for funding once again as well. The Italians announced some austerity of their own last week to get ahead of budgetary problems of their own. US eyes will all be on the Non-Farm Payrolls data on Friday. Economists, and the American people as well as the Bernakster are all hoping for the best out of this one as numerous bouts of pump priming has moved the needle barely 1/2 of 1% over the past year. Earnings will start in earnest next Monday as Alcoa will kick us off after the bell. It will be interesting to see how the volatile Euro and energy prices have effected the bottom lines of multi-nationals over the past quarter. Even though there are only four days in the work week a full calendar is on tap. The Conference calendar is light, but be on the lookout for any pre-announcements as well. Have a wonderful week ahead!
Asia- China's HSBC Services PMI as well as the Australia Rate Decision will highlight
Europe- Germany,the Euro-Zone and UK will release PMI Services data. The Euro-Zone will also release Retail Sales data where a reading of -0.6% is expected.
North America- US Factory Orders are the lone data point. A reading of +1 is expected.
Asia- Japan will release Leading Index as well as Machinery Orders data. New Zealand will release GDP data which will also highlight during the session.
Europe- a calm before the storm on the continent as German Factory Orders are the lone expected data point with a consensus estimate of -0.5%. FYI- Portugal heads to the market with a debt auction which will be watched closely.
North America- US- MBA Mortgage Applications and Challenger Job Cuts will highlight pre-opening. ISM Non-Manufacturing data is also on tap where a reading of 53.6 to 54 is expected.
***Visa (V) will report after the close... look for buyback declarations as they have been spotted several times over the quarter***
Asia- Australia's Unemployment Situation will highlight during the Asian trading session
Europe- Swiss CPI, Rate Decisions from the BOE and ECB will highlight. As an aside German Industrial Production will also be released. Spain will head to the markets as well for funding.
North America- US- Continuing/Initial Jobless Claims as well as Nat Gas and Crude Inventory data. Target (TGT) will provide a sales call which should be watched to gauge the health of the US consumer.
Asia- Japan will release a heavy amount of macro data overnight into the Friday session. China will also release its Business Climate data.
Europe- the Swiss will lead once again with Unemployment data, and a heavy data day out of Germany, with Current Account,Trade Balance and Import/Export data.
North America- Canada- Unemployment Situation est. 7.4%. US- Non-Farm Payrolls +150k jobs with the rate dropping from 9.1% to 9% is expected. Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit are also on the docket during the trading day with 0.6% and $3.75B estimates respectively.
Eric J Schumacher
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